Happy New Year…..how about a contest to get it started?
My case for a full-blown frenzy is based on having additional supply to fuel the seemingly-insatiable demand brought on by the pandemic – having more homes for sale will help spike sales and prices. Betting on more people selling their piece of paradise sounds insane as the coronavirus rages throughout the region, but we’re overdue – and there are a number of reasons why it could happen:
http://bubbleinfo.s020.wptstaging.space/2020/12/22/my-top-ten-reasons-for-frenzy-2021/
We will know how the selling season will unravel just by the number of new listings in January.
Here is the history:
NSDCC January Listings
| Year | |
| 2011 | |
| 2012 | |
| 2013 | |
| 2014 | |
| 2015 | |
| 2016 | |
| 2017 | |
| 2018 | |
| 2019 | |
| 2020 |
The range is 275-471, the median is 412, and the average is 396 listings. Last year we had 5% fewer listings, but 13% more sales than in 2019. My 2021 prediction is 10% more NSDCC listings year-over-year, 10% more sales, and a 10% increase in the NSDCC median sales price.
OUR CONTEST: GUESS THE NUMBER OF NSDCC LISTINGS IN JANUARY, 2021!
In 2020, saw a big drop-off in January listings year-over-year (-16%), and that was before the pandemic. If we see a similar amount, or fewer, then prices will go nuts but be limited to the neighborhoods that actually have sales, and the lucky few who can win a bidding war.
If we have a surge in listings, then more of the demand will be satisfied and the frenzy will reach more areas – and prices go up faster because of the additional comps, all of which should close for a higher price than the last sale.
Having a contest based on the number of January listings will help to keep our focus on one of the leading indicators for the 2021 selling season.
The winner will be who guesses the closest (above or below) to the actual number of January listings as counted on the morning of February 15th. The winner will receive two tickets to a day at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, June 17-20, and four tickets to a game with World-Series favorite, the San Diego Padres!
I have purchased tickets to both events already, so as long as the ‘rona cooperates and fans are allowed, we will have prizes. Neither the PGA or the Padres have committed to a set policy on fans yet though, so if they both cancel out then I’ll think of something else for a prize.
Our Padres tickets aren’t front row, but they are decent:
Leave your guess in the the comment section on how many NSDCC SFR listings we’ll have in January!
305 listings in January 2021.
Why risk moving at the height of this pandemic?
…. my bad, $$$$$$
I don’t think it is fair that I be allowed to win the prize but your +10% seems about right. I notice every year ends in an odd number. So:
425
I might be low. Even very low. My “lowness” stems from many sales no longer making it to the listings.
Oh. And other than the brutal sun those are great seats.
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6uD7caiUgPk/X_NgY984GEI/AAAAAAAAL_U/oEdLKAKXHNsn99pJmv9o-qEUxitLYQmPQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1280/IMG_0606.jpg
Oh. And other than the brutal sun those are great seats.
Night games are best – then go carousing in the Gaslamp District and get in fights. Next time!
325
347
Why risk moving at the height of this pandemic? …. my bad, $$$$$$
The long-time empty-nesters would be smart to grab their dough and down-size. Maybe even move to a remote county, take their tax-basis with them, and really make out!
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Humboldt-County_CA/with_waterfront
234
353. Same as last year
Rob Dawg has a format down to only odd numbers and the fact that many sales don’t even get listed.
I’m breaking trend with an even number of 318 which will be 10% under Jan 2020 listings. I would love to see 500 but I don’t think we are setting up for that many.
This will be interesting to compare on February 15th too:
Mortgage rates are off to a slow start in the new year, and that’s a good thing. An absence of movement means the average lender continues offering rates that are at or near record lows. For top tier, conventional 30yr fixed loans, that’s around 2.75% for refinances and 2.5% for purchases.
Whether or not rates remain in this territory in the short term may come down to Georgia’s senate run-off elections this Wednesday. Why would rates care about that?
Simply put, any time one political party has full control (i.e. House, Senate, Presidency), it’s easier for the government to spend money (or legislate a revenue shortfall, as was the case with the tax bill in 2017). In either case, the result is more Treasury debt, and the level of Treasury debt is a key input for interest rates in general.
This is neither bad nor good, but there are pros and cons depending upon what you value. One downside is that increased Treasury issuance puts upward pressure on Treasury yields which, in turn, but upward pressure on mortgage rates, all other things being equal. That said, it remains to be seen how big the move in Treasuries would be and if any unforeseen developments would be in a position to offset that move. Beyond that, the mortgage market still has a moderate amount of insulation against rising Treasury yields.
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/964003.aspx
432
383
I predict 289. Too much chaos… I see a steep drop but it picks up soon.
311
Slow start to the season but March to June will be bonkers
396. Petco distance home to center field wall.
Healthcare system collapses and people stay home
270 new listings in January
404
343
333 will be the lucky number! Cheers to a great 2021!
440. Have you seen mortgage rates?
420 of course!
387 😀
405
Have you seen mortgage rates?
Hmmm, yeah a little choppy since the riot but still under 3% so panic button still stashed under my mattress.
422
Wow. My 425 is bracketed by 422 and 432. Good luck to all.