This guy only sees negative in the real estate world. He called me once trying to get me to bash the market, and when I refused, he hung up. Even today he is still ranting:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-house-market-is-falling-apart-2014-08-26
Real estate analyst Keith Jurow, author of the Capital Preservation Real Estate Report, is warning that the real estate market is not as strong as it seems.
Says Jurow: “I never bought into the idea that we had a recovery at all.” His research leads him to conclude that home prices will be heading lower.
His research? Because the Case-Shiller Index is still rising, just not as fast – that means prices will be heading lower? There are plenty of reasons you could use to justify the doomer position (wars, unemployment, unaffordability, earthquakes, etc.), but smaller increases are a weak excuse.
He also thinks we will still have a surge of foreclosed properties to come, just because their are so many people delinquent. But once you miss a few payments and ruin your credit, the delinquent homeowners might as well ride it out until they get the boot.
How are the San Diego foreclosures?
Some said they dropped off because of the Homeowners Bill of Rights, which was released two years ago and became law on January 1, 2013. The bansk have had plenty of time to adjust – here’s how they are doing:
It’s hard to believe that people just go back to making their payments, whether they get a loan mod or not. The banks will wait until they can make money by foreclosing, which around the coastal markets, should be after another 10% appreciation or so. Until then, why foreclose and lose money?
Bad News Leads LOL.
Anyway I have definitely noticed certain market news outlets have a negative bias against housing (Yahoo for instance), They have largely been saying the same things since 2010/11.
I find the overwhelming media bias in regards to housing is over optimistic. But, I can understand how anyone in the real estate business, or connected with it, would think otherwise.
My take is the market is artificial. But it is what is is and how long it remains so is anyone’s guess. I also agree the banks have really no incentive to foreclose in a big way, right now anyway. So, the market stays dead in the water, with exceptions for some areas of course.
When I was a kid and I’d tell my Dad that we ought to buy something because it cost less than it was worth and therefore wsa a good deal, he gave me a pithy reply.
“It’s worth what someone will pay for it”, he said.
If deals are being made, that’s the market, and the market doesn’t care whether or not I think it is a good deal.
I still believe that banks are manipulating the market and they plan on inflating their way out of trouble.
Eat more dog food grandma.
Absolutely – Yellen can’t make up her mind because every time she thinks about raising rates, the guys in the backroom talk her out of it.
Go Grandma! 😆
They crash the housing market they crash the States budgets and pension funds.
OK go ahead you raise rates.
Yes it is manipulated but so are the Oil markets.
it is what it is.
Agreed, and we have three choices:
1. Sit on the sidelines complaining.
2. Get our piece while we can.
3. Run for office, get elected, and change it back to the America we once knew.
If we take San Diego as a whole, or even Southern California for that matter the consensus is its slowing down. Price reductions are hitting left and right and overzealous sellers looking to get rich on the summer season are quickly realizing they missed the 2013 frenzy that never showed up in 2014.
We’re stable, but down and like most reports they are a few months behind the curve before the data many of us see in the field can be quantified and reported on.
Socal has leveled off, and in some areas gone down. I’m a little surprised this website hasn’t commented more on the subject.
Did you just stumble across this blog today?
For the record:
http://bubbleinfo.s020.wptstaging.space/category/jims-take-on-the-market/
It all boils down to one simple math truth.
Anything with long term Debts cannot withstand long term deflation.
The math does not work.