Here’s an example of how fast the market has been moving:
It was only nine years ago when you could buy a decent Carmel Valley starter home in the $600,000s. This 2,056sf house built in 1985 on Santa Nella sold for $678,000 in April, 2009.
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Five years later, this 2,057sf house in Carlsbad sold for $679,000 in April, 2014.
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You can still buy a 2,096sf house in the $600,000s today; you just have to go to Oceanside. Here’s an example of a house that just closed for $620,000, and though it does back to a busy road, you do get a 3-car garage!
Meanwhile, the value of the Carmel Valley house is around $1,000,000 today.
A blog post with 29 comments from the era (and our local trough on prices, April, 2009):
http://bubbleinfo.s020.wptstaging.space/2009/04/18/multiple-offers/
It will be $679,000 again soon give it time. Rails about to come off this train.
It will be $679,000 again soon give it time. Rails about to come off this train.
Everyone is looking forward to unprecedented chaos coming from Mueller vs Trump, and regardless of the turnout, the economy has nowhere to go but down.
But it isn’t going to force people to sell their house. Without must-sells, any price dip will be subject to the seller’s ego.
Two big changes:
1. Banks let people live in their houses for years without paying.
2. Older folks who need dough can get a reverse mortgage with NO payments.
The non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index for San Diego has risen 71% since April, 2009, or about 8% per year. The normal seller won’t give up their equity easily now, and would consider all other options before dumping on price. The worst decline might be a couple of ticks each year, but it would take a collapse of the reverse-mortgage market first.
Interesting to read those comments then see what actually transpired.
https://piggington.com/images/dec_17_housing_data-1.png
“It will be $679,000 again soon give it time. Rails about to come off this train.”
Unless I’m totally mistaken they stopped giving 0% down NINJA loans. So “to get back to $679” means someone with $200k in cash in the house (if not 100% of the cash) has to sell. As Jim said, why? There are only so many divorces and layoffs.
Did you get a loan with 100% LTV and no income verification recently? I sure didn’t. Sure anything _could_ happen but I don’t think “100% LTV and no ability to pay” is what we’re looking at. Why sell, when you paid all cash in the first place? Or you put > 20% down and, you know, have a job and can pay the mortgage, like most buyers in the past 5 years?
“It will be $679,000 again soon give it time. Rails about to come off this train.”
No, but thanks for playing.
“Everyone is looking forward to unprecedented chaos coming from Mueller vs Trump, and regardless of the turnout, the economy has nowhere to go but down.”
I think there’s a more pressing issue of national concern than Mueller.
Biden is claiming he’s going to choose off President Trump to a fight in the rose garden or something. The problem is, how can Trump continue to cancel Obama’s many executive decrees with his current level of efficiency if his knuckles are all bruised up by Biden’s face? It’s certainly a clever strategy by Biden. Perhaps the first one. It just came at a bad time, imo.