Photo taken from our seats
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!
For those who were thinking it’s so bad that January’s count might be single digits, there has already been seven new listings this year – though four of them were refreshed listings from last year.
Number of Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad
| Year | |||||
| 2009 | |||||
| 2019 | |||||
| 2020 | |||||
| 2021 | |||||
| 2022 | |||||
| 2023 |
Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 15th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2023! This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 15th.
Reasons why January’s inventory will be LOWER than expected:
- Sellers will wait until the market gets ‘better’.
- Sellers will wait until somebody else goes first.
- Sellers are distracted by a big playoff run by the Chargers.
Reasons why January’s inventory will be HIGHER than expected:
- Panic selling – sellers who want to get out early in the season.
- More boomers are getting older every year.
- Realtors refreshing their listings more often.
There is no evidence that there will be a surge of hundreds of listings. Though there are more active listings today than there were at this time last year (265 vs 152), it only means the 4Q22 selling success rate was lower than in the frenzy years.
The guesses from last year’s contest:
142 The other Bob
181 Eddie89
201 Daniel Nicolas
210 Drew
215 Joe
222 Majeed
230 Lifeisradincbad (he was a winner in 2021)
237 Curtis Kaiser
245 doughboy
250 Deckard Mehdy
259 Susie
260 Derek (the other winner in 2021)
270 Skip
278 Haile
286 Matt
290 Esteban del Rio
294 Tom
295 Rob Dawg
300 BWell_SoCal
312 big T
325 Mortgage Guy
373 Rob
The winner will be the closest guess, so leave some room around your number to heighten your chances.
Last January’s count was 30% lower than it was in 2021, to which I made this comment:
The 2022 inventory count was 2,832 (so far).
What it’s like watching a game from these seats? Here are 15 seconds:
160
Every year has been trending down and this number just follows the existing pattern
158
111
186 lower rates, no Chargers
130
Let’s include some of my comments during the last contest:
Jim the Realtor on January 10, 2022 at 4:44 pm
Omicron coupled with higher interest rates will have people wait it out.
Omicron maybe but smart sellers will want to get ahead of rate hikes. Goldman Sachs thinks the Fed will move earlier that expected and in March do their first hike.
Mortgage market already pricing it in too. Today’s conforming rate up to 3 5/8 no points.
Jim the Realtor on January 11, 2022 at 11:33 am
My thought of the day:
In spite of rates increasing a half-point already, it appears that the frenzy momentum will continue for a while.
If the value of your home was +10% by May/June, would you sell then? Because you want to prepare now and be ready to list on May 1st.
You don’t want to have the realization too late that the +10% happened, and then start the scramble to get ready/find a place to move/have Jim sell house. It won’t be the same market in September.
I should have mentioned pent up supply due to Covid as part of my “high” number.
140
I should have mentioned pent up supply due to Covid as part of my “high” number.
This should be on my list of reasons of why the count might be HIGHER.
The group of Covid sellers who are pent up has been growing for three years, and while a few might still have concerns, more will be tired of waiting.
165
99
262
128
136
high rates + bad weather + Covid + down stock market + recession headlines =
nobody moving unless they MUST
115
Hey, it’s Mr. Optimistic again.
We expect the overall inventory to come in low. The inventory of great houses will be even lower – and prices stable-ish.
If there is a flurry of activity and prices look like they are improving – do the reluctant sellers reverse course and decide to sell this year?
Or once they write off selling today, does that feeling last until next year? I think it might.
People are happy to commit to ‘some day’. (Especially guys)
My example in Carmel Valley:
There were a few sales for $1,600,000, then my sale got bid up from $1.599 and closes for $1,660,000.
The same model and nicely upgraded listed for $1,695,000 AND WENT PENDING OVER CHRISTMAS WEEKEND:
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/6092-blue-dawn-trail-san-diego-ca-92130/1207410709954468921
My point: If you decided not to sell your house in the same neighborhood for $1,600,000 in November, do you change your mind now and re-engage at a higher price?
If these potential sellers sense an opportunity, we could see a higher count.
Jeff Campbell logged a guess of 200 on the LinkedIn version of this article (An old friend and one of the few remaining agents left from the double-aught club – real estate licenses that begin with two zeros).
86
213 I’m not all gloom and doom 😉
174
Some weirdo in that vid covering his eyes like horse blinders. Oh…it was that crazy woman with the towel next to him who put out his left eye a few times earlier that night.
298
190
119
Some weirdo in that vid covering his eyes like horse blinders. Oh…it was that crazy woman with the towel next to him who put out his left eye a few times earlier that night.
LOL! Mitch and his lovely wife, who have seats on the other side, surprisingly showed up and sit in the seats right in front of us!
I was hoping you would see you in this video!
175, for the win
The summary:
89 Momento
99 Tom
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
119 Beachside
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy
186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
213 Shadash
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
159 Median
162.4 Average
20 Friday morning’s count. None have gone pending.
We’ll keep taking guesses until Jan. 15th.
First in with 160, looks like a general consensus with 159 Median and 162.4 Ave.
If it happens like it did the last two times we did this, the final number was in the bottom-30 percentile of the guesses.
In spite of the lower expectations this year, if that happens again we will end up around 120-130. Yikes!
142
Let’s go with 146
120
The summary, with some additions from the FB page:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy
186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
152 Median
165 Average
37 Saturday morning’s count
152
104
117
The summary, with some additions from the FB page:
16 Noodle
89 Momento
99 Tom
104 BWell_SoCal
111 Majeed
115 Lifeisradincbad
117 Susie
119 Beachside
120 Curtis
128 Joe
130 Rob
136 Skip
140 Haile
142 MC
146 Derek
152 Drew
158 Susan
160 doughboy
165 Kingside
174 SurfRider
175 Sciguy
186 Rob Dawg
190 Bode
200 Jeff Campbell
203 Lauren Stickelman
213 Shadash
252 Aunt Nancy
262 Eddie89
298 Nick
333 Sherman Messing
149 Median
41 Sunday night’s count, which means 130-160 should be in sight. It’s been 5.125 per day x 23 more days = 118 + 41 = 159 plus late-reporters.