No shortage of demand for the brand new high-enders. Here they’ve sold 100+ houses and lots already, averaging $2,000,000 or so for the houses.
If you are on the lengthy list of waiting buyers (who had to pre-qual to $2M), is time running out? Do you opt for one of the two 1-story plans with 25-ft backyards available, or hold out for a future phase and risk getting nothing?
Earlier today, reader ‘socalbuyer’ asked,
Jim,
Word on the street is that Qualcomm is going to layoff a couple thousand folks in San Diego this year. Wanted to get your thoughts on how that would affect the real estate market in San Diego. Most of those jobs may not find a fit in San Diego, and a bunch of Qcomers probably don’t need to sell.
Your thoughts?
My response:
It should mean an instant 10% decline in prices around Carmel Valley because buyers will expect some insurance. Sellers will reluctantly agree because they probably made that much in appreciation over the last year.
After that, it will get interesting.
The unemployed will shine up their resume and hunt for a new job for a year (or more) before ‘giving it away’. Spouse and kids won’t surrender easily either.
This is what we can expect from any disaster, natural or otherwise, that shocks the system. Buyers will be prone to hesitate, and the sellers who feel somewhat panicked will accommodate by lowering their price to clinch a sale.
Real estate isn’t known to be a liquid asset, so everyone will adjust expectations after the initial pop.
socalbuyer asked,
My understanding is that we have a total of 9000+ property sale transactions a year in San Diego…the qcom layoff number is as high as 5000. Figure 50% find a job out of San Diego and need to sell, 2500 units on the market sounds sizable, especially if most are in 92130.
Last year there were 22,079 detached homes sold in San Diego County, and 470 in the 92130 – which is only 39 per month. If pricing retreated a little, there could be a surge of CV buying but either way, it is a small portion of the market compared to the overall county. I’m guessing that there is enough underlying demand that any excess properties will get soaked up – it’s just a matter of price.
Carmel Valley prices have gone up 20% in the last 2-3 years. If sellers had to give that much back, they’d survive. The market will too – CV has too much going for it.
One of the most affordable ways to get into the Del Mar School District:
Will better access to Del Mar Mesa make a difference? I don’t know if it will raise prices, but it should cause buyers to re-consider the benefit of exiting the I-5 freeway at the Carmel Mountain Rd. bypass and be home in 10 minutes, rather than fight traffic to Rancho Santa Fe for an extra 30-45 minutes:
The opposition has to be in shock:
In front of a packed house, the San Diego City Council approved a controversial mixed-use project in Carmel Valley after hours of public comments.
The One Paseo Project includes the construction of stores and eateries, the expansion of a movie theater and the addition of more than 600 family apartments and a parking structure in Carmel Valley.
The San Diego Planning Commission approved the proposal for the $750 million, 1.4 million square-foot, mixed-use village slated for the corner of Del Mar Heights Road and El Camino Real. The panel agreed to the plan on the condition that developer Kilroy Realty agreed to make 11 changes to the master plan.
On Monday night, the San Diego City Council approved the plan 7-2, though they did say Kilroy must add 60 affordable housing units and a sychronized traffic system. Council President Sherri Lightner and Council President Pro Tem Marti Emerald were the dissenting votes.
Hundreds showed up Monday to hear the debate at council chambers — so many that Golden Hall had to be used as an overflow area. About 600 people signed up to speak on the issue, many wearing red shirts to show their opposition to One Paseo.
The Carmel Valley Planning Board voted against the current proposal but its members have said they support a smaller version of the plan.
I don’t have a dog in this race, I just like seeing people getting involved in their community. KPBS has both sides of the debate here:
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2015/feb/21/sides-debate-merits-one-paseo-carmel-valley/
Here is the KPBS report: http://www.kpbs.org/news/2015/feb/18/one-paseo/
In Carmel Valley, the P-team is cranking up the new-home production in 2015, with several new homes in all price ranges coming to market.
Sellers of older existing homes can use these as a guide for pricing – because you know the buyers will:
She used to read the blog here:
A former ‘Mother of the Year’ who admitted to terrorizing a couple after they outbid her for her dream home has been ordered to keep away from them for 10 years.
Kathy J. Rowe, 53, expressed her regret as she was sentenced in San Diego, California on Friday, where she was also handed down a year of electronic surveillance and five years of probation.
Court records document how Rowe tormented Jerry Rice, 40, and Janice Ruhter, 37, for months after they moved into the home in the upscale neighborhood of Carmel Valley in 2011.
Read story and see a video of the proceeding:
How is the fourth quarter rolling out?
Are sellers feeling pressured to lower their price? Are buyers stepping up?
Here are the pricing trends in our local areas:
SE Carlsbad – List and sales pricing converging should cause an active 4th quarter – unless buyers decide to wait-and-see where this is going:
Encinitas – An example of what can happen when pricing converges here, where buyers backed off starting in April. But sellers are proud, and heck, it’s only money:
Rancho Santa Fe – This is how they roll in the Ranch – put a price on it, and wait for someone to come along. It results in a meandering trend:
Carmel Valley – Stunning to see average list pricing in decline since April – but it’s been working. It keeps the sales momentum rolling:
La Jolla – List pricing took off in the beginning of 2013, but buyers cooled off for a full year before coming back around in 2014, price-wise:
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
