Abalone Landing Terrace in Carmel Valley has had a typical frenzy – low inventory and rapidly rising prices. There were two sales that closed in 2020 – one $1,650,000 in July and $1,780,000 in October.
At the end of May, 2021 a new listing hit the open market at $1,950,000, and was promptly bid up to $2,120,000. It closed on July 8th, and it must have gotten other residents thinking.
Four new listings have hit the market in the last week:
This is a street of 50 homes, with about half of them still owned by the original purchaser from 2002-2003. After having only three sales in the last two years, the four new listings in a week is shocking!
It’s Carmel Valley, so there probably won’t be an issue with these selling. But it shows how quickly the market can change, and provide the buyers with even more data to consider.
The trend of paying over the list price is increasing.
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price
January: 38%
February: 43%
March: 53%
Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list which will cover some or all of the commission. There were 22 of 244 (9%) that went double-digit over list. The big winners:
Most % Over List Price
List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$1,299,000
$1,655,000
27%
$989,000
$1,200,000
21%
$749,000
$900,000
20%
$1,325,000
$1,580,000
19%
$1,900,000
$2,255,551
19%
$1,535,000
$1,800,000
17%
$2,800,000
$3,200,000
16%
$2,198,000
$2,510,000
14%
$2,695,000
$3,075,000
14%
NSDCC Sales, March: 244
Average List Price: $2,285,792
Average Sales Price: $2,252,883 (99%)
Median List Price: $1,788,500
Median Sales Price: $1,810,000 (101%)
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Over List By Price Point:
Under $1.0M: 6
$1.0M – $1.5M: 44
$1.5M – $2.0M: 39
$2.0M – $3.0M: 32
Over $3.0M: 8
A real bell curve there!
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The most sales over list are happening right where you’d expect:
Most Sales Over List By Area:
SE Carlsbad, 92009: 32 of 41 sales were over list (78%).
Carmel Valley, 92130: 22 of 32 sales were over list (69%).
Encinitas, 92024: 24 of 41 sales were over list (59%).
The intensity of the CV frenzy is hard to determine because it’s sold out. Lines are forming but who knows how long?
Because the builder has so few left, you know they would wait it out if necessary. But so far, they aren’t having trouble finding buyers willing to pay $2M to $3M here:
Hard to believe that new-Pardee pricing is where Toll Brothers was 12-18 months ago. But this is the only game in town if you want a new house in the 92130 – especially a larger one-story:
Compass has opened the regional headquarters at the multi-use One Paseo in Carmel Valley.
“The move for Compass to One Paseo was an easy decision,” said Shana Pereira, San Diego general manager of Compass.
“What One Paseo represents in holding onto the community feel of Carmel Valley, but bringing a futuristic and modern vibe, is synonymous to what Compass stands for — being a full-service real estate brokerage and fostering our real estate agents’ businesses, while embracing the modern advancement of technology with the goal of making their lives easier,” Pereira said. “We hope that the move of basing our regional HQ (headquarters) at One Paseo shows our commitment to San Diego and the people that live here.”
She said Compass expects to have more than 100 agents in the One Paseo offices.
Here’s my brief tour of One Paseo:
We had the all-Compass virtual meeting yesterday where is was noted that the brokerage has made record income for five months in a row, and was profitable in 3Q20. Another 300 support people have been hired in the last three months, with another 200-300 expected to be hired by the end of the year. No mention of the IPO yet, but it has to be in the works.
I wonder if the rest of America looks at the homes in the bottom half of this photo above and correctly guesses that they are selling in the mid-millions…..Excerpts from article linked at bottom (hat tip Ray!):
Would-be home sellers have numerous reasons for staying out of the market, say real-estate agents. Some are worried about potential virus exposure by letting strangers tour their homes. Others have canceled or delayed their plans to move due to the pandemic, or they are worried about finding a new home in a competitive market.
KC Hart has experienced the inventory shortage firsthand as a real-estate broker in Missoula, Mont., where demand is high from buyers moving from other states. He’s also contributed to the problem. Mr. Hart and his wife were planning to sell their house this summer after their youngest went to college, but they delayed their move because their son is staying at home this fall while taking classes locally.
“That’s one more house not on the market,” Mr. Hart said.
In some cases, sellers are waiting until the spring, traditionally the busiest home-selling season, said Quentin Dane, chief executive of Dash Realty Group in Raleigh, N.C.
“We hear this all the time: ‘They might get a vaccine for Covid coming at the end of the year, and the spring market is right around the corner,’” Mr. Dane said. “Sellers [are] saying, ‘If I don’t need to sell, why go through the risk of selling right now?’”
Another obstacle for sellers is the high demand for contractors, painters and other workers who can perform repairs or upgrades to houses to prepare them for sale, said Beth Traverso, managing broker at Re/Max Northwest Realtors. Once houses in her area of the Seattle suburbs go on the market, they are usually sold within days, she said.
Jeff and Jill Borgida wanted to sell their house in Bothell, Wash., this spring now that their children were grown. But with inventory so low, they struggled to find a new house in their area and budget that met their needs.
“We were getting nervous, because we were along a path to list our house and we’re not finding any really suitable options,” Mr. Borgida said. Finally, they widened their search parameters and found a house farther out than they had originally looked.
When the internet took over the real estate business 20+ years ago, the dumbing-down of the valuations began. Now that we are making life-changing decisions based on split-second exposure to imagery from a hand-held device, the process has gone binary – a quick yes or no, without much other consideration.
It’s not just the buyers – realtors do it too.
When searching my new listing in Carmel Valley, the first comparable sale that pops up is this model-match that sold for 16% less in May:
The possibility that somebody got a deal in Carmel Valley doesn’t even occur to us, and because we’re accustomed to making snap decisions, just the price disparity alone will cause most to swipe to the next listing – and not give it another thought.
Let’s look deeper, shall we? There are three ways to evaluate what happened:
What is the neighborhood history? We’ve been having record-setting prices everywhere this year, and in most neighborhoods, the last sale is the highest sale ever. Is the $1,880,000 the highest sale ever in the Lexington tract? The answer is NO. There have been 15 sales higher than $1,880,000, including the previous $1,900,000 sale on Shannon Ridge that was across the street, on the non-view side. Nine sales have closed above $2,000,000, with the highest being $2,350,000. My list price of $2,250,000 is within reason.
What was the condition of the comp? Those who are used to examining the MLS photos will notice right away that the condition of 5414 Shannon Ridge was all original, which are the homes that struggle to sell these days.
What was the listing history? Shannon Ridge first listed for $2,195,000 in June, 2019. The listing agent refreshed the listing three times will gradual price reductions, and in April, 2020 the price was down to $2,095,000. According to the listing agent, they had shown the home 190 TIMES, so they had to think they were close, but the covid had just hit and they had to be exhausted from so many showings. They lowered the price to $1,995,000, and the next day took $1,880,000 – a drop of $215,000 within 24 hours.
There we have a good explanation of why they dumped on price (original condition and covid freak-out), and why it’s a one-off.
Will buyers today be willing to look deeper than one bad comp?
I think so – we received the first offer last night!
I’m lucky to have such great clients who do the most effective and popular upgrades that turn their home into a premium showplace! Ideally situated on one of the best view lots in CV, this fully-renovated masterpiece has everything – TWO bedroom-suites downstairs, wide-plank hardwoods, designer kitchen, low fees, no road noise and no power lines!
Enjoy one of the best views in the 92130 too!
5278 Brittany Forrest, San Diego, CA 92130
6 br/5.5 ba, 4,687sf
YB: 2000
HOA + MR fees = $156/month
LP = $2,250,000 (we represent the sellers)
Tomorrow is the grand opening of the last PHR tract, and the base models are going out at $1,939,000 to $2,649,000 and add more $$ for window coverings and landscape (plus HOA + MR = $500+). Wait for months until they are done, or buy in the Del Mar school district on a quiet, private culdesac with premium view and without the congestion!
Toll Brothers is wrapping up in Carmel Valley’s Pacific Highlands Ranch. They listed this model home for $4,098,000 and it went pending in the first seven days on market (currently pending). I did end up selling lot #218 seen at the end:
Are you looking for something similar for about half the price? Stay tuned!
