The local index peaked in May, so today’s local Case-Shiller reading for October is the fourth in a row that reflects the much-higher mortgage rates:
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%
Mar
416.64
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
426.08
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
428.32
+0.5%
+25.6%
Jun
425.26
-0.7%
+21.6%
Jul
414.03
-2.6%
+16.5%
Aug
402.62
-2.8%
+12.7%
Sep
394.18
-2.1%
+9.5%
Oct
391.34
-0.7%
+7.6%
It looks like we may have seen the worst of it?
If so, and the monthly declines are tempered over the next couple of readings, it should mean that the index will be in the 380-390 range as we roll into the spring selling season – or about where it was a year ago.
It sure seems to be going better than most people thought it would!
As the national leader of real estate, Zillow is attempting to guide people with data, thankfully. Their Home-Value Index has been decent, and I’ll take the -7% for San Diego….which means our premium areas haven’t felt much decline at all.
Their comment on current conditions isn’t ground-breaking but at least it offers some hope:
Activity in the housing market has slowed to a crawl this winter but the stage is set for a spring thaw: buyers can count on the usual springtime flood of new listings, and less frenzied competition than the last two spring selling seasons in the New Year. But if home shoppers really want to experience some deserted open houses, there’s no time like the present, because this lull won’t last long.
Here are their latest predictions about our local areas, all of which have values that are higher YoY:
NW Carlsbad
SE Carlsbad
NE Carlsbad
SW Carlsbad
Carmel Valley
Del Mar
Encinitas
La Jolla
Rancho Santa Fe
Let’s enjoy our stay in Plateau City – we may be here for a while!
With the radical change in market conditions, the annual statistics are going to look dramatically different from the more recent activity – look at these differences in home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
NSDCC 2022 Annual Sales, and Sales Since Nov 1st:
Data Point
Jan 1-Dec 20
Nov 1-Dec 20
% Difference
Median LP
$2,292,500
$1,989,000
-13%
Median SP
$2,321,000
$1,890,000
-19%
Median DOM
15
28
+87%
Median SF
2,727sf
2,609
-4%
Median $/sf
$828/sf
$740/sf
-11%
Average $/sf
$970/sf
$826/sf
-15%
My guesses?
I’m predicting a +5% change in the current NSDCC median sales price of $1,890,000 which gets us back to almost $2,000,000. Combine the softer pricing with current seller disappointment and the damage has been done – the 2023 local inventory should be so low that it helps to create a floor in pricing.
WASHINGTON (December 13, 2022) – Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist and senior vice president of research, forecasts that 4.78 million existing homes will be sold, prices will remain stable, and Atlanta will be the top real estate market to watch in 2023 and beyond. Yun unveiled the association’s forecast today during NAR’s fourth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit.
Yun predicts home sales will decline by 6.8% compared to 2022 (5.13 million) and the median home price will reach $385,800 – an increase of just 0.3% from this year ($384,500).
“Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines,” Yun said. “However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10–15%.”
Ivy covers all the topics in this recent interview. The most interesting was her graph above that shows how much quicker sales have declined this year, compared to the last downturn.
She is expecting -12% in national pricing, and -20% in sales next year.
The different topics are identified in the red line at the bottom of the YouTube, and I started at Pricing:
Realtor.com is forecasting that the San Diego-Carlsbad metro area will have prices dropping 27% in 2023, but also conclude that fewer sales (-23.7%) will make our area more affordable. They combine the two and call it +3.6% combined growth.
They base their forecast on the lack of affordability, which ignores how many, if not most, buyers are using a hefty down payment to keep their monthly payments more reasonable.
If there was a severe price dump in 2023 like they are describing, the sellers wouldn’t go for it, and the inventory would dry up. Just about every potential seller has to be thinking that they have already given up a certain percentage of their equity in 2022 (off their inflated sense of value), and waiting it out sounds way better than coughing up another 20%.
But this is the type of garbage that could get into people’s head, and whether it’s realistic or not doesn’t matter as much as the perception. Thanks Realtor.com!
Guesses of the percentage change in the 2023 national home pricing from today’s free WSJ article:
NAR: +1.2%
NAHB: +0.7%
Fannie Mae: -1.5%
Goldman Sachs: -7.5%
Ivy Zelman: -12% (peak-to-trough in late 2024)
John Burns: -20% (peak-to-trough in late 2024)
KPMG: -20%
The article doesn’t cover any new ground because nobody wants to commit to how this plays out.
But I’ll give you my opinion.
Prices will keep declining until realtors tell their sellers that they need to sell in the first week or two on the market, or get lowballed. To do so, they need to make their home look spectacular, price it attractively, and make it easy to show. To really improve your chances, offer a competitive commission rate to buyer-agents. Then the realtor needs to employ terrific salesmanship, and find a qualified buyer quickly.
Yesterday, I offered my take on pricing for the San Diego 2023 real estate market.
For those who don’t watch videos, I said the overall median sales price will be down 3% next year, with the superior-home sales causing a +5% median sales price among themselves. Where the line is drawn between superior and inferior homes will be interesting!
In this episode of the Top of Mind podcast, Mike Simonsen sits down with Rick Palacios Jr., Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, to talk about what to expect in the real estate market in 2023.
Rick discusses the company’s latest research on homebuilder sentiment, shares their latest forecast for home prices and the economy, and talks about some secret signals to watch for changes in the market.
About Rick Palacios Jr.
Rick Palacios Jr. is the Director of Research and a Managing Principal at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, where he oversees all research pertaining to the US economy, for-sale housing, and rental markets.
Rick has 15 years of experience in residential real estate and economic research, originally joining John Burns Real Estate Consulting in 2006 and then rejoining the company in 2014 after working as a home builder Equity Research Associate at Morgan Stanley in New York. He has also worked as an Analyst at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank.
Rick holds a BA from the University of California, Irvine, and an MS in real estate economics and finance from the London School of Economics.
Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:
Why new home construction might accelerate the housing market slump
How much home prices are likely to decline in the next two years
The leading indicators (and secret signals!) to watch for changes in the market
