The amount of properties being foreclosed is still lower than the last two summers:
| Jun-Aug | Back-to-Bene | 3rd-Party Buys | Total # of SD properties foreclosed |
| 2008 | |||
| 2009 | |||
| 2010 |
But at least the recent trend is heading in the right direction – fewer trustee-sale cancellations:
Will servicers consider that selling more properties when rates are 4.25% might be a good idea?
The August foreclosure stats, plus examples of houses that went back-to-bene last week:
From the latimes.com, and featured at CR:
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-luxury-foreclosures-20100829,0,479624,full.story
“The number of homes in the $1-million-and-up market that have become bank owned has tripled during the last three years in Los Angeles County, and the trend has shown little sign of slowing.”
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What about San Diego County? On Foreclosureradar.com you can search by approximate value, here are the number of detached properties over $1,000,000 that were foreclosed in SD County for the entire year:
2007 = 74
2008 = 103
2009 = 162
2010 = 126 so far.
There has been a rebound lately in the number of weekly trustee sales resulting in REOs, but still relatively low numbers overall, compared to where we think they should be:
Below is the quarterly chart for the last three years. Even though the foreclosure moratoriums are mostly expired, there haven’t been more properties getting foreclosed than in 2008 – but add in the cancellations and it looks to be about the same (or more) volume as 2-3 years ago. Are banks letting people off the hook, or did defaulters get their loan mod? Or were they just bluffing?
But you might be able to say that the servicers must be getting sharper on price, and/or the investors are getting more optimistic – the third-party purchases have gone up substantially since 2008.
We’ve heard the rumblings about Bank of America stepping up their foreclosures, and low and behold, I got another REO listing assigned to me today.
I promptly rejected it, which I figured would secure my spot at the bottom of their list, and boom, they sent me another one, which means 2-3 in the last week when I’ve only been getting one a month. Does it mean something is cooking?
Here are the overall results from the last 12 weeks for all trustees:
Cancellations are due to short sales closing, and loan modifications becoming permanent. There have been 2,623 cancellations over the last 60 days, and in the same period there were 925 short sales that closed on the MLS, or 35% of the total cancellations. Can we say that about 2/3’s of the cancellations are due to loan modifications becoming permanent?
Yes, the loan modders might make their way back to market over the next few years, but for now the extend-and-pretend program is working nicely.
Here is the REO assigned to me today:
Eric at the North County Times mentioned the increase in Bank of America notices of trustee sale being sent out. Click here for link to full article.
The notices went to 230 homeowners in North San Diego County, a 69 percent increase from February.
Wow, will there will be more SFR short sales or REOs in North SD County Coastal?
There were 22 new notices sent out in February, and 23 in March to SFR borrowers from Carlsbad to La Jolla – not quite a meltdown yet. There are also some familiar faces on the lists as well, and we won’t count those as new meat.
Here are the lists:
February 2010 Recon NOTS NSDCC
We could all use some more inventory – keep ’em coming!
Added later, the chart from Effective Demand, click on it twice for clarity:
If you’re trying to gauge your chances of finding a seller who is distressed, here are the number of detached properties that have listed on the MLS as short sales (SS), bank-owneds (REO) or regular sellers (Reg.), plus the number of SFR trustee sales completed that either went back-to-bene (BTB) or were bought at the steps by a 3rd party – since March 1st:
| Town or Area | Zip Code | SS | REO | Reg. | BTB | 3rd |
| Cardiff | 92007 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2 |
| Carlsbad NW | 92008 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 3 | 2 |
| Carlsbad SE | 92009 | 8 | 5 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Carlsbad NE | 92010 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 1 |
| Carlsbad SW | 92011 | 9 | 1 | 54 | 2 | 0 |
| Del Mar | 92014 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
| Encinitas | 92024 | 7 | 3 | 76 | 4 | 2 |
| La Jolla | 92037 | 3 | 3 | 94 | 2 | 1 |
| RSF | 67+91 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 2 | 1 |
| Solana Bch | 92075 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 5 | 0 |
| RB West | 92127 | 12 | 5 | 85 | 7 | 1 |
| Carmel Vly | 92130 | 7 | 5 | 96 | 0 | 1 |
| ’10 Total | All | 55 | 36 | 688 | 32 | 15 |
| ’09 Total | All | 44 | 15 | 747 | 28 | 2 |
This year has seen a relatively big increase in short-sale and REO listings compared to 2009, but they’re still only 12% of the total listings that have been coming on the market recently in San Diego’s North County Coastal region. With only 1-2 properties being sold at the trustee sales per day, there isn’t much to look forward to this summer. The regular sellers won’t be feeling much pressure from distressed neighbors, and likely to hang around waiting…..for something.
Mary asked, “How many SD foreclosures have there been over the last three years?”
| Trustee Sales | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| REO | 7,859 (22/day) | 17,894 (49/day) | 11,760 (32/day) | 2,097 (30/day) |
| 3rd Party | 399 (1/day) | 593 (2/day) | 2,749 (8/day) | 865 (12/day) |
| Totals | 8,258 (23/day) | 18,487 (51/day) | 14,509 (40/day) | 2,962 (42/day) |
A total of 44,216 trustee sales since January 1, 2007!
In the same time frame there have been 95,499 sales of detached and attached homes on the MLS.
It looks like servicers are coasting into the HAFA/short-sale era, which officially begins April 5th. Here are the foreclosure stats from the last 12 weeks:
My guess? The HAFA package will encourage borrowers to pick a lane – either loan modification or short-sale. But there are probably enough strategic defaulters to keep it busy down at the court house steps, but so far there have been very few quality properties at attractive opening bids. I’m checking the list everyday, and I haven’t gone down to the ‘steps once this year!
Kelly at the Voice of SD reviews the current market conditions in the San Diego real estate market at this link, here’s an excerpt:
There were 9,243 active homes and condos for sale on the Multiple Listing Service on Tuesday, according to Klinge. That number pales next to the number of distressed properties that have yet to be repossessed: 7,260 homes that have received at least one default notice and 10,221 that are headed for auction, according to Klinge. None of those nearly 17,500 properties have gone back to the bank yet.
But the threat of a flood of distressed properties hitting the market and driving prices down in one fell swoop has been just that — a threat — for years now. Klinge’s been monitoring the homes that hit the courthouse steps, and nearly as many auctions have been cancelled as have actually gone forward.
Here is Rich Toscano’s take on it, link here.
Bottom line? We’ve been knocking on a lot of doors, and it appears that the servicers are keeping the loan modders on the foreclosure rolls for now, and cancelling the trustee sale once the borrowers are well into permanent-mod status.
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