by Jim the Realtor | Jun 10, 2024 | Inventory |
The count of active listings is powering skyward, and could be 500+ in the next week or two. There haven’t been more than 500 actives between La Jolla and Carlsbad since before the pandemic, so you can say that the inventory getting back to normal.
But unless pricing turns around, it won’t be be the same “normal” like it was prior to the pandemic.
The median sales price in 2019 was $1,327,250. This year it is $2,350,000.
The median list price today is $3,500,000 today.
The median list price was $4,444,000 when 2024 began. There were only 255 active listings to start the year. The distribution:
NSDCC Active Listings
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by Jim the Realtor | Jun 6, 2024 | 2024, Inventory, Market Conditions
Earlier this year, I speculated that the market could endure – and probably snap up – additional inventory, as compared to last year. The 2023 inventory was like the Mohave Desert!
It seemed that 10% to 15% more would be easily digested, and maybe even +20% or +25%.
Bill’s new stats out today suggest how much, is too much:
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 3, 2024 | Inventory
It looks like the home-selling season is losing any momentum it had in March-May when the pendings that closed escrow were being steadily replaced.
You can see that we had a mid-summer spurt of pendings last year, but with the political circus ramping up and buyer-agents being shown the door, I doubt that there will be any big breakout of new pendings for the rest of this year.
But we’re doing better than most!
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by Jim the Realtor | May 27, 2024 | Inventory
The premature end to the selling season was postponed this week.
There have been 137 NSDCC closings this month too, which means we should match, and maybe even pass, the 178 sales we had last May.
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by Jim the Realtor | May 20, 2024 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market |
The NSDCC inventory has gotten off to a hot start in 2024 – it’s already at the level it was at in July of last year! As long as the pending keep up….oh wait.
Well, maybe there will be a surge of new pendings on the way? There was a late-summer surge last year, and if it was going to happen, it really should happen earlier this year too.
Pricing of the unsolds probably won’t change much:
The last time mortgage rates were 7% was 22 years ago when local home prices were about one-third of what they are today. As a result, the only semi-relevant comparisons are to last year!
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by Jim the Realtor | May 13, 2024 | Inventory
With the pendings count being flat for the last eight weeks, it means there have been as many new escrows as closings. It’s when the pendings count starts to fade that we will know the sales machine is breaking down, and there might be trouble ahead.
There has been a steady flow of new NSDCC listings hit the market (40-60 per week in 2024) which has to be encouraging for buyers. Not only are there more homes to consider, but it could also mean that it’s a little more likely that a glut could form and put some pressure on pricing. But it’s not happening yet – the number of actives has flattened out too.
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by Jim the Realtor | May 6, 2024 | Inventory
In the last seven days of April, there were 75 closings between La Jolla and Carlsbad – and there are 183 more that are still pending!
Given the higher mortgage rates, this has to be peak performance, doesn’t it?
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by Jim the Realtor | Apr 29, 2024 | Inventory
In the last week, there were 67 new listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad – the highest weekly count in 2024 and only the second time over sixty this year. But the appearance in the graph above was muted because there were 36 new pendings, and 42 closings – which is good flow! There have been 36 new pendings in three out of the last four weeks, which doesn’t suggest much of a slow down.
We’re already up to 165 sales this month, the same as last April! The median sales price YoY is up 8.3% too.
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by Jim the Realtor | Apr 22, 2024 | Inventory
The graph above should give us all some guidance on where the 2024 market is going.
Sales are hanging tough though. There have been 117 NSDCC closings this month, so we should get close to the 165 sales we had last April. The median sales price is running +5% above last April too.
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by Jim the Realtor | Apr 15, 2024 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market |
It looks like we’ve found the number.
Because the inventory was so low last year, I thought the market could easily handle a 10% to 20% increase in active listings this year.
But now the number of actives is +30% YoY, and the pendings aren’t increasing in a similar fashion. If sales don’t pick up, it means a glut of unsold listings could be forming over the next 1-2 months.
Will buyers care?
Probably not, because they have shrugged off worse (higher prices and rates). But once a listing goes unsold for 2-3 weeks, it will take something drastic to get the buyers’ attention again.
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