San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally Adjusted
Month
San Diego CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan 22
384.13
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.44
+4.6%
+28.9%
Mar
416.45
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
425.90
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
427.80
+0.5%
+25.2%
Jun
424.83
-0.7%
+21.6%
Jul
414.03
-2.6%
+16.5%
Aug
402.48
-2.8%
+12.7%
Sep
393.80
-2.1%
+9.5%
Oct
390.61
-0.7%
+7.6%
Nov
385.40
-1.5%
+4.9%
Dec
380.09
-1.3%
+1.6%
Jan 23
378.79
-0.4%
-1.3%
Feb
384.46
+1.6%
-4.1%
Mar
394.05
+2.5%
-5.3%
Apr
401.90
+2.0%
-5.7%
May
409.32
+1.9%
-4.3%
Jun
413.72
+1.1%
-2.3%
Jul
416.68
+0.7%
+0.6%
Aug
419.08
+0.5%
+4.1%
Sep
419.35
+0.0%
+6.4%
Oct
418.82
-0.1%
+7.2%
Nov
416.36
-0.6%
+8.0%
Dec
413.45
-0.7%
+8.8%
Jan 24
421.34
+1.9%
+11.2%
Feb
428.26
+1.6%
+11.4%
The local Case-Shiller Index is back to the peak of May, 2022!
The next two readings will likely be +2.0% month-over-month.
The 20- City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3%, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 11.4% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Detroit , with an increase of 8.9%. Portland, though still holding the lowest rank after reporting two consecutive months of the smallest year-over-year growth, had a significant increase in annual gain of 2.2% in February.
Think of the monumental change needed in the listing agent’s psyche to get them to stop scolding the buyer-agents and give some respect – but instead they are shorting the commissions too. If you blow off the buyer-agents, then you’re on your own – and the vast majority of agents will have no clue how to find their own buyers.
From the confidential remarks in recent MLS listings:
Buyer did not perform! Seller wants it gone. Seller is going to request your EMD deposit released upon receipt! $25K No games! This home will not go VA, or FHA because of the state of repair. Seller has unfinished work do to other buyers wanting him to stop work because they were buying AS-IS. Sellers are not going to do any repairs. Enter house thought side door do not open front door, BE VERY CAREFUL! Very unsafe! Good luck!
Broker/Agent does not guarantee accuracy of permits, square footage, lot size, zoning, rent control, use codes, schools, and/or other information concerning the condition or features of the property provided by the seller or obtained by public records. Buyer is advised to independently verify the accuracy of all information through personal inspections, the City, and with appropriate professionals.
Please confirm with the listing agent (via text) that the front door is locked properly before leaving property.
Be timely, turn off lights and lock all doors behind you.
Do not contact agent to hold open house or ask to market the property online or through Social Media.
I have tried to be available to everyone for showings and conversations, however I am finished answering questions on what the seller’s want. Thank you for your hard work.
Seller accepted an offer prior to coming to market. There is not a bedroom on the first floor. Please do not request a showing if your clients need a downstairs bedroom. Please do not request to hold open, we hold open houses internally with our team.
NO MORE SHOWINGS OR OFFERS ! MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED!
new double pain windows
Photos along with offer instructions coming soon. Do not contact agent to hold open house or ask to market the property online or through Social Media.
Must provide POF / Lender letter for showing. Only qualified buyers. Listing agent at all showings. No lockbox. Dog on property.
Strictly showing by appointment only.
Only selling 1/2 of the building. No HOA has been formed for the building. 1 bedroom is tenant occupied with lease ending 7/31/24. A/C only in 1 bedroom. Tenant interested in staying.
Home has video cameras inside and out. Seller will be removing Lutron Casseria smart home (switches) and replacing with standard. Security cameras, wine fridge and outside fridge do not convey.
Multiple generous offers already received, all are due by noon, Monday 4/29. You must register your showing using the Sentrilock box or physically attend the open house on Sunday 1 to 4, 4/28. DO NOT USE SHOWING TIME. Touring the property will be a condition of acceptance along with loan cross qualification by (the listing agent’s lender). Please send in your best and highest offer with POFs and loan letter. Offers that do not have all the requirements or are sent to the wrong email, will not be considered. Seller reserves the right to select the best one offer or send out multiple counter offers. Seller to select services.
You’re open? Sure gives the feeling that they plan to work you over on the buyer-side commission.
How about 3%? Oh, you want to negotiate – make it 4% then!
It was so great to start the tour today with Pete’s new listing on the Encinitas Ranch Golf Course whose owners succumbed to the problem at hand. They get hit by golf balls, so provide a barrier and live with it.
This is way better than the alternative where potential buyers have to wonder about the impact. Know this – when a golf ball hits your roof, it sounds like a bomb went off.
There isn’t as much fluff as we used to have in the pre-pandemic days.
In March 2019, there were 6,026 homes for sale, but only 2,554 sold, which means there were lots of sellers and agents on the open market who were in price-discovery mode – and they found out what the market wouldn’t bear.
We’re heading back that way again.
For the last three years, we’ve been spoiled by maximum demand (caused by low inventory combined with low rates). But now that both are creeping upward, there will be sellers/agents who are overly-optimistic and don’t factor the negative impact into their equation.
Last month’s ratio of 2,871/1,950 = 1.47 is still better than the 2019 numbers of 6,026/2,554 = 2.36, but don’t be surprised to see an upward trend of unsold listings forming over the next few months.
The first quarter of 2024 is the only 1Q in recent history to have increases in BOTH the number of listings AND the median list price. Previously, increases in pricing had a corresponding dip in the number of listings available for buyers to consider.
If you are like me, you’ve seen a noticeable surge in seller optimism in 2024. It’s not just the median list price that is up 8%, doesn’t it seem like everything is $200,000 higher than last year?
Because the inventory was so low last year, I thought the market could easily handle a 10% to 20% increase in active listings this year.
But now the number of actives is +30% YoY, and the pendings aren’t increasing in a similar fashion. If sales don’t pick up, it means a glut of unsold listings could be forming over the next 1-2 months.
Will buyers care?
Probably not, because they have shrugged off worse (higher prices and rates). But once a listing goes unsold for 2-3 weeks, it will take something drastic to get the buyers’ attention again.
While the media has been stirring up their hysteria over the commission decoupling…..this from CNN:
It’s the second part of the settlement that will likely frustrate buyers even further:
Let’s call it, The Return of the PEAD!
When Covid broke out, it was decided that the only way we could safely show homes again was if every buyer and agent submitted a form to the listing agent that declared they didn’t have Covid, and weren’t exposed to anyone who did. It was a joke of an exercise, but we had to do something.
Because this is a business where the competency of the listing agent is many times just measured by their ability to complete the forms, the gathering of the PEADs became almost militant in nature. Listing agents demanded that a buyer-agent MUST provide their PEADs before even thinking about scheduling an appointment to show the home!
Do you remember how in the minutes/hours it took to send the PEADs over to the listing agents, it caused just enough delay to allow shenanigans to take place behind the scenes? Listing agents would declare with glee, “Oh, you took too long to submit your PEADs and I already sold the house to someone else!”
The same thing will happen with the buyer-broker agreements. I’ve already had a Coldwell Banker agent tell me that if I was going to submit an offer on his listing, to make sure I include a copy of my buyer-broker agreement. It’s not required until July, but hey, it’s never too early to bust the chops of the buyer agents!
Secondly, think about the buyers who haven’t found a buyer-agent they liked yet, and just want to attend an open house that looked semi-interesting online.
The new rule says you can’t see the house without a buyer-broker agreement.
Open-house agents will be manning the front door with their “sign-in” sheets. But now those sheets will be committing the buyer to a buyer-agent commitment too. Will the agents mention that part? How many unwitting buyers will attend an open house in July and then find themselves in a 3-month or 6-month commitment with an agent they just met?
The legit agents will at least designate their agreement for this house only, where the buyers are committed to the agent if they buy the open house. But those buyers will be giving up their name, address, phone, and email so if you don’t buy this one, the agents keep contacting you until you buy or die.
Oh, you don’t like that program?
Chuck had the best reply so far, “Hey, it’s the DOJ”.
The number of active listings is a reflection of how many new listings are coming on the market vs. how many are going off the market at the same time.
While today’s number of actives is 29% higher than it was last year at this time, let’s note that the 2023 inventory was a virtual flat line where they were selling as fast as they were coming on the market.
Any reason for alarm today?
Not really – more actives means there are more homes to choose from, which should mean more sales as long as the number of unsold listings doesn’t start looking like a glut and spook the buyer pool (apparently, the +29% is acceptable). So far, so good in 2024.
This year looks pretty strong! If you house isn’t selling, it ain’t the market’s fault.
The controversial local brokerage in Los Altos was offering a measly $10,000 commission to the buyer-agents on their listings, most of which were $4,000,000 and up. They listed a similar house on a quiet street about a mile away for $2,988,000 and then marked it pending a week later.
So I followed their lead and priced my listing at $2,995,000 even though mine needed EVERYTHING and was on a heavily-traveled street.
I wanted to prove that paying 2.5% commission to the buyer-agent would cause a better result.
Theirs closed for $4,200,000 (and was put up for rent for $2,900/mo).
Mine sold for $4,200,000 too, but then our buyer-agent volunteered to cut 1.5% of her 2.5% commission and deduct it from the sales price. In those cases, the lender has to get the appraiser to re-issue their appraisal at the revised price – but she forgot, which delayed closing for another week. I’ve never prayed so hard for an earthquake not to happen!
I don’t know if the agent on the other sale only got paid $10,000 to support her buyer with paying $1,200,000 over their list price, but she deserved more.
But combined with my buyer-agent being so generous, and the other comments at open houses, the agents around the Silicon Valley are so desperate that they are begging for business. The amounts buyers pay over the list prices indicate the same.
I still think my result was better than the $10,000 guy due to our harsh condition and busy street. But I can’t say that the 2.5% made any difference at all.
We can probably come to this conclusion though. In a scorching-hot entry level market, you don’t need to pay much to a buyer-agent, if anything at all. If the buyer-agent is smart, they will have their own agreement with their buyer to cover it.
In areas where the actives-to-pendings ratio is 4:1 or higher (Rancho, I’m looking at you), paying a reward or bounty to a buyer-agent is worth considering. Is that steering? No, it’s America, where paying incentives to get what you want should be legal and encouraged.
In January, 30% of the NSDCC sales offered less than a 2.5% commission to the buyer-agents, and in February it was 25%.
Since the NAR settlement was announced on March 15th, 40% of the listings are offering less than a 2.5% commission to the buyer-agents.
There isn’t a new rule that directed listing agents to offer less commission. They just felt like doing it.
Is it due to the listing agents being weak and inexperienced? Or are the listing agents are still charging their full fee and taking more for themselves? Either way, they are under-appreciating of the job of buyer-agents, which isn’t good for their sellers.
What’s going on?
Agents who lack solid sales skills will offer a reduced commission rate as their reason to hire them. Importantly, these agents are unwilling to improve their skill set. They believe that completing the forms is all there is to being a realtor, and offering a reduced fee is the only way for them to get business.
Those who still charge their full fee but are now paying less to the buyer-agent are flat out greedy. Their commission rate is never disclosed to anyone besides the seller – at least not yet, and if the DOJ wants to focus on the nefarious, they can start right there.
Would you want either of those agents in your corner when the action starts?
Smart home sellers will recognize a critical issue.
The eventual sales price matters more than the commission rate.
Homeowners who don’t want to pay ANY commissions can sell their house to the buffoon who advertises on television. But he only pays 70% of the home’s value – yet he gets business because there are people who fall for the ‘quick cash and no fees’ enticement.
In addition, there are plenty of agents who offer a reduced rate in exchange for reduced services – but what real estate services can you do without? What are the vital sales skills needed to sell for top dollar?
The best agents have sales skills that cause your home to sell for more money, and they are successful enough that they don’t need your listing. Do you think they are going to discount their rate?
Are you going to hire a great agent who will push the sales price higher? Or will you settle for any old licensee just to save a point on the commission?
Reducing commissions aren’t going to make agents better, or have them put in extra effort. They aren’t going to do the same job for less pay. Because they agreed to be paid less, they will want to do less.
Is that who you want working for you?
The top agents employ a collection of superior sales skills that deliver a top-dollar sales price AND make the experience easy and enjoyable. Isn’t that what you want?
