by Jim the Realtor | Aug 2, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Over List
The average and median sales prices last month were similar to what they were in December, even though the same percentage of buyers paid over the list price.
It might make you think that this market is retreating quickly!
But look at the difference of the number of lower-end sales, and square footages:
The size of the houses weren’t that different, so what’s up?
Buyers aren’t bidding up the prices like they were before. Here’s an example of those right under the median sales price last month:
Instead of overbidding by hundreds of thousands of dollars, buyers in July mostly stayed in their shoes and only offered a little over the list price. Expect that trend to continue!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 25, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market |
The San Diego Case-Shiller Index has bounced back nicely this year!
Percentage Change Between January and May
2019: +3.5%
2020: +3.6%
2021: +13.0%
2022: +11.6%
2023: +8.2%
Even if it flatlines the rest of the year, are there any local homeowners that will be disappointed they only gained 8.2% this year after every forecaster said you were going to lose 10% to 20%?
Quote from the Case-Shiller boss (who keeps talking like we’re all clear):
“Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May’s data bolster the case that the final month of the decline was January 2023. Granted, the last four months’ price gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness. But the breadth and strength of May’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future months.”
What about the rest of 2023?
The different national measuring sticks should track a fairly flat trend like last year. The Case-Shiller Index was the most dramatic of the bunch:
The San Diego Case-Shiller dropped 11% between May, 2022 and January, 2023. Sellers should wait until spring, rather than give it away – but there will be enough that need to sell that we could lose a few points by January, 2024. But it shouldn’t be many, and there could be a slight increase if sales plummet (if only the superior houses are selling).
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 24, 2023 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim
In the past week, there were 18 FEWER new listings and 15 MORE new pendings than the week before – and boom, the mid-summer surge continued….but only for some, not all.
A good example of the current market conditions is one of the La Costa Valley 6 that we’ve been following. After four price reductions and 64 days-on-market, this became the best value available and went pending:
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/2871-vista-acedera-carlsbad-ca-92009/1299560759783040497
It typifies the struggle for home sellers. Either you can take corrective action to ensure yours is the next to sell, or you can wait. But waiting increases the days-on-market statistic, which invites lowball offers.
Last week, I spoke with a listing agent about a home that had been on the market for three months. They had eight showings in the first two weeks, and NONE since. Buyers are assuming that it’s not worth anywhere close to the list price, and they have no interest in even looking at it, let alone buying it.
Sell in the first two weeks your home is on the market when urgency is higher, or risk getting lowballed.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 22, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, Where to Move
For those leaving California, you’ll be the safest in Massachusetts, followed by Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Rhode Island.
Safety seekers should avoid Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi and Oklahoma.
Link to full article
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 21, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim
The NSDCC sales are trending lower and appear to be focused on the lower-end:
We should still get the 100+ sales in July, and hopefully no one will be screaming about prices dumping 20% in one month. It’s just that the higher-end isn’t clicking like it was before.
Another note – the quality of the homes for sale is disappointing. These are the leftovers nobody has wanted during the selling season, which does help the new listings look even hotter!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 20, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow |
At the beginning of 2023, the Zillow 1-year forecast for San Diego home values was -0.8%. In May, their expected 1-year appreciation rate in our local areas was around +3%.
Now they are guessing it will be around 4%….which might cause more sellers to wait longer!
SE Carlsbad – 92009
NE Carlsbad – 92010
SW Carlsbad – 92011
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
When is the best time to sell?
- When no one else is.
- When you have great comps (recent sales) around you.
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 19, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal
I try to investigate different ways to analyze the market data so readers can grab something pertinent that might help them make a better decision about their real estate needs.
Here’s today’s attempt!
July isn’t done yet but you can see the trend: The high-end isn’t cooking like it was.
Datapoints:
- More sales on the lower-end causes the median sales price to drop.
- The lower Median Days On Market is a result of fewer high-end sales.
- Only 10 sales over $4,000,000 means we’ll probably have around 15 total.
The higher-end homes are notorious for being priced aspirationally, and the data suggests that buyers aren’t going for it like they were previously.
The low end is hot, and the high end is, well, not so much!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 18, 2023 | 2023, Bidding Wars, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim |
We’ve received ELEVEN offers on our new listing at 7114 Columbine!
The five cash buyers have declined to go any higher, so the six financed offers will be competing today for the win. We sent all of them a highest-and-best counter with a 4pm deadline today. Meanwhile, any other agents who want to show and sell are encouraged to do so – we don’t stop the showings or offers, like most agents do.
We’re already $100,000+ over the list price!
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 12, 2023 | 2023, Frenzy, Frenzy Monitor, Jim's Take on the Market
The Carlsbad market has been surviving quite well – there are 14% more pendings today than last July.
The other areas are all above the 2:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings (our standard for a healthy market). The number of actives in Encinitas DOUBLED in less than a month!
Last July there were 171 pendings, and it’s the same number today!
The pendings should steadily decline like last year, and by December the count should be around 110.
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 11, 2023 | 2023, Jim's Take on the Market, Over List
The need to pay over the list price has diminished a bit, but about a third of buyers who closed last month still felt like it was worth paying more than the sellers were asking.
Last month looked a lot like June, 2022! There were 24% fewer sales however, and that trend should continue through the rest of 2023:
There were 20% fewer listings YoY last month, so with virtually all of the current active listings holding out on price and very little new product to consider, the fate of the 2H23 market will be back to the buyers – how bad do you need to buy a house right now, versus waiting for Spring 2024?
