They expect another 200,000 homes to be built in SD County? Where? MCAS Miramar?
San Diego officials are expecting an end to the region’s perpetual growth.
Driving the news: San Diego’s population is expected to peak in 2042, and then decline by about 100,000 people by 2060, according to the latest regional forecast by the San Diego Association of Governments.
Ray Major, SANDAG’s chief economist, told the agency’s board last month this is the first regional forecast expecting a population decline.
“Every other forecast has had huge increases, with the San Diego region growing to 4 million people by 2050 … Now we’re looking at 3.4 million.”
Why it matters: The forecast carries planning implications for major, taxpayer-funded resources like housing, transportation infrastructure, water and energy.
By the numbers: San Diego’s growth machine has been slowing for decades.
The region grew by 1 million people from 1980 to 2000. But in the last 20 years, San Diego added half that.
Planners now forecast just 140,000 new San Diegans over the next two decades.
That’s when the region’s population is expected to peak. By 2060 the region is expected to have just 40,000 more people than it has today.
Between the lines: The region’s death rate is increasing, its birth rate is decreasing, and migration is flat.
One in 10 San Diego residents were over 65 in 2000. By 2060, that’ll be one in four residents.
That aging population will demand different government services and have different transportation and housing needs, said Cynthia Burke, SANDAG’s senior director of data science.
“Our parks are going to need more pickleball courts and fewer play structures,” she said during the July board meeting.
Here’s a sky shot of the South Carlsbad/Encinitas region in 1967. The La Costa Resort opened in 1965 (in the center of the photo) and another nine holes was added on the north end in 1984.
We know that 80% of readers don’t go past the headlines, so the UT is challenging their customers lately to figure out the direction of the real estate market.
These are their headlines from the past two days:
Yesterday
Today
I have reached out to the author previously, but no response.
Others including Bill Walton are thinking the Miramar open space would be ideal for housing – an excerpt:
San Diego has the nation’s best year-round weather and ample adjacent federal lands, making it the perfect site for the start of a national solution to homelessness. Sunbreak would soon prove successful in San Diego and could then be quickly replicated up the West Coast and across America.
We need help in three ways to launch the Sunbreak initiative:
1. We need our President and federal government to lease 2,000 acres of MCAS Miramar land to Sunbreak Ranch at $1 per year, and to designate this land as a temporary “federal emergency homeless help zone.” This will eliminate local red tape and opposition.
2. We need our President to deploy the military and security services to build a tent city for Sunbreak Ranch on this site with surplus equipment from the Afghan and Iraq deployments. Our military and security services have the manpower, expertise, and equipment to build out this entire tent city within weeks.
3. The cost of this Sunbreak experiment is minimal compared to the untold tens of billions of dollars currently being spent (to no avail) on homelessness annually.
To prove the viability of Sunbreak, we need significant individual philanthropists or organizations to step up and seed-fund this three-year Sunbreak initiative with up to $275 million.
This funding would include the proviso that when the first Sunbreak Ranch succeeds, the federal government will step in and begin fully funding a ranch outside of every major U.S. metropolitan center that agrees to return to the Rule of Law on their streets.
Homelessness is ultimately a public sector responsibility, but we first need the private sector and philanthropists to illuminate the pathway forward.
As a way to “raise additional revenue and to increase ridership on trains and buses”, the train people started looking for developers last April – their solutions:
Under agreements the board approved Thursday, West Village Partners will build 184 market-rate apartments or townhouses and 50 affordable units on 14.37 acres the transit district owns at the downtown Carlsbad Village Station on State Street.
Affordable housing will make up 27 percent of the Village residential units, well above the city’s minimum requirement of 15 percent. The Village project also will include 17,000 square feet of ground floor retail space, 435 parking spaces, a 110-room boutique hotel, a senior living facility, and 80,000 square feet of office space, according to preliminary plans.
“This location is primed for redevelopment with only a short walk to restaurants, retail and local beaches,” a district staffer said.
The Village station sees an average of 800 patrons daily, with about 600 of those riding the Coaster and 200 using Breeze buses. The Poinsettia station, on Avenida Encinas near Poinsettia Lane in southwest Carlsbad, averages 400 Coaster riders and about 40 bus riders daily.
Raintree Partners was selected for the 11.47-acre Poinsettia Station, which will have 146 market-rate dwellings and 31 affordable units, or 17 percent of the residences. Almost 5 acres of the site will remain undeveloped under a permanent conservation easement.
Both exclusive negotiating agreements are valid for 2.5 years. During that time, the developers will work with district, city and regional officials on final designs, permits, and other issues. Construction is expected to start in 2025 at the Village station and in 2027 at the Poinsettia station.
Just another 234 apartments, a 110-room hotel, senior facility, and ~100 offices in downtown Carlsbad. You think it’s crowded now? There won’t be any room left for the tourists!
I still haven’t heard anything regarding the development of the Encina Power Plant property…..but there is a new idea for it. The company is also building a device to power your home for 400 years!
Our company ECD Energy Corp is interested in purchasing the NRG property where the Encina smokestack was located. We are interested in building a desalination plant that will provide water to all of Southern California with energy produced by our (soon to be released to the public) electro-kinetic power generation device which does not use any carbon fuel. This would be excellent for the community of San Diego, provide water at a fraction of the cost and revolutionize desalination worldwide-with San Diego as the leader in this new technology. We are a San Diego based company.
Thank you for the tremendous support! You generously bought 65 pies and donated another $3,300 to the cause. It will allow Mama’s Kitchen to provide 2,017 medically-tailored meals to San Diegans who are vulnerable to malnutrition due to critical illness.
Let’s don’t get into modern-day politics because there is no civil discourse any more. Instead, let’s reminisce how it used to be – above is Part 2 of the famous Reagan interview from January, 1975. Part 1 is here:
