Adding a loft/bedroom over a tall ceiling isn’t a big deal – it’s nothing money won’t fix!
This was the day I got into Bloomberg Businessweek:
Here’s the photo shoot:
https://www.damoncasarez.com/jim-the-realtor
A summary of my life in the 2008-2013 bust-boom:
This article describes the price swings per season for each town – San Diego is among the least-affected because our weather doesn’t change much.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/best-month-buy-home/
The off-season may have somewhat-lower pricing, but that’s also when inventory is the leanest!
Buy when you find the right house/location, and make the best deal you can.
This presentation covers both sides of the concerns about home values plunging because of the effects of the pandemic on the economy.
Suze says don’t buy a house until later this year because there could be foreclosures, and David points out that the CARES Act already gives those in forbearance at least 6-12 months. I’ll point out that the rules changed after the last crisis, and now lenders don’t have to foreclose if they don’t feel like it – which makes foreclosure an option, not a requirement. It’s a huge change that Suze doesn’t see.
Our society is now geared to take advantage of other people’s misfortune, so insiders will pounce.
One of the more-accurate forecasters is predicting that home prices will start dropping:
Strong home purchase demand in the first quarter of 2020, coupled with tightening supply, has helped prop up home prices through the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. However, the anticipated impacts of the recession are beginning to appear across the housing market. Despite new contract signings rising year over year in May, home price growth is expected to stall in June and remain that way throughout the summer. CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts a month-over-month price decrease of 0.1% in June and a year-over-year decline of 6.6% by May 2021.
Unlike the Great Recession, the current economic downturn is not driven by the housing market, which continues to post gains in many parts of the country. While activity up until now suggests the housing market will eventually bounce back, the forecasted decline in home prices will largely be due to elevated unemployment rates. This prediction is exacerbated by the recent spike in COVID-19 cases across the country.
https://www.corelogic.com/insights-download/home-price-index.aspx
Expecting prices to fall that quickly is flawed, however.
They are ignoring that for home prices to go down, we would need a load – probably a majority – of sellers who are willing to sell for less than the last guy got. In addition, it would take realtors who recognize what’s needed, and be able to properly advise their sellers on lower pricing.
It ain’t going to happen.
Listing agents only have one pitch – to berate the buyer agents into paying the seller’s price. If we ever get to the point where buyers object to the constantly-rising prices, and/or we run out of buyers altogether, then there will be a long stall before sellers and agents re-calibrate.
Recognizing that a shift in pricing is needed will be hampered by all the usual excuses.
The seller retorts of “I’m In No Rush”, “I Don’t Need to Sell”, and the classic, “I’m Not Going to Give It Away”, will be doused with coronavirus blame before any sellers – even the desperate ones – would consider selling for less than what they think they deserve.
Sales will slow first, so keep an eye on them – but it would take 1-2 years of stallout before sellers and agents start believing that they might not get their price.
Our coronavirus showing disclosure form changes every week (sometimes multiple changes per week) and now it’s literally up to EIGHT pages long. Every buyer has to sign a new form for every house they want to see, in advance, and by electronic signatures only.
But it hasn’t slowed down showings – we are back to where we were last year!
I drew this up on April 15th. The market has been heating up nicely since.
Let’s modify the chart by making all of June a hot zone, with a breather around 4th of July!
We are #24 on the Top 30 markets to be affected by the coronavirus, which is pretty far down the list – and we’re still relatively affordable when compared to other higher-end areas.
For those who are thinking of moving to a more affordable area and aren’t affected by the statistics, here are my favorites that still have a 2020 median SP under $300,000, in order of how they rank on the list:
Las Vegas – $283,000 (1st)
Miami – $275,900 (5th)
Orlando – $245,000 (6th)
Ft Myers – $235,000 (8th)
Fresno – $265,000 (12th)
Lakeland FL – $193,000 (13th)
Memphis – $145,000 (21st)
Jacksonville – $210,000 (25th)
Daytona Beach – $202,000 (26th)
Phoenix – $288,000 (28th)
And their surrounding suburbs might be an even greater value!
At least this was based on a survey, rather than ivory-tower speculation:
Where people choose to live has traditionally been tied to where they work, a dynamic that through the past decade spurred extreme home value growth and an affordability crisis in coastal job centers. But the post-pandemic recovery could mitigate or even produce the opposite effect and drive a boom in secondary cities and exurbs, prompted not by a fear of density but by a seismic shift toward remote work.
Now that more than half of employed Americans (56%) have had the opportunity to work from home, a vast majority want to continue, at least occasionally. A new survey from Zillow, conducted by The Harris Poll, finds 75 percent of Americans working from home due to COVID-19 say they would prefer to continue that at least half the time, if given the option, after the pandemic subsides.
Two-thirds of employees working from home due to COVID-19 (66%) would be at least somewhat likely to consider moving if they had the flexibility to work from home as often as they want. Only 24 percent of Americans overall say they thought about moving as a result of spending more time at home due to social distancing recommendations.
Many employed Americans are trying to square the desire to work remotely with the functionality and size of their existing homes. Among employees who would be likely to consider moving, If given the flexibility to work from home when they want, nearly one-third say they would consider moving in order to live in a home with a dedicated office space (31%), to live in a larger home (30%), and to live in a home with more rooms (29%).
A Zillow analysis finds 46 percent of current households have a spare bedroom that could be used as an office. But that percentage drops off by more than 10 points in dense, expensive metros such as Los Angeles, New York, San Jose, San Francisco and San Diego, where far fewer homes have spare rooms.
When it comes time to move, home shoppers who can work remotely may seek out more space — both indoor and outdoor — farther outside city limits, where they can find larger homes within their budget.
“Moving away from the central core has traditionally offered affordability at the cost of your time and gas money. Relaxing those costs by working remotely could mean more households choose those larger homes farther out, easing price pressure on urban and inner suburban areas,” said Zillow senior principal economist, Skylar Olsen. “However, that means they’d also be moving farther from a wider variety of restaurants, shops, yoga studios and art galleries. Given the value many place on access to such amenities, we’re not talking about the rise of the rural homesteader on a large scale. Future growth under broader remote work would still favor suburban communities or secondary cities that offer those amenities along with more spacious homes and larger lots.”
Zillow Premier Agents from Silicon Valley to Manhattan say anecdotally, they’re seeing the early beginnings of a shift.
“We are seeing more buyers looking to leave the city,” said Bic DeCaro, a member of Zillow’s Agent Advisory Board serving Washington, D.C., and Northern Virginia. “Buyers, who just a few months ago were looking for walkability, are now looking for extra land to go along with more square footage.”
Keith Taylor Andrews, a small business owner in Denver, started home shopping on Zillow the week Colorado issued a stay-home order. The first-time homebuyer is now under contract on a house in Fayetteville, Arkansas that he plans to use as his home office.
“We learned from COVID-19 that we could operate our business remotely,” said Andrews, who has 40 employees working from home. “Arkansas is a good place to move, it’s economical and there are far fewer people. It feels like a breath of fresh air to get out of the city.”
http://zillow.mediaroom.com/2020-05-13-A-Rise-in-Remote-Work-Could-Lead-to-a-New-Suburban-Boom
I called it a Stunning Recovery on Monday, and they used the same words today. Coincidence? 🙂 Hat tip Mitch!
If mortgage demand is an indicator, buyers are coming back to the housing market far faster than anticipated, despite coronavirus shutdowns and job losses.
Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 6% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Purchase volume was just 1.5% lower than a year ago, a rather stunning recovery from just six weeks ago, when purchase volume was down 35% annually.
“Applications for home purchases continue to recover from April’s sizable drop and have now increased for five consecutive weeks,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist. “Government purchase applications, which include FHA, VA, and USDA loans, are now 5 percent higher than a year ago, which is an encouraging turnaround after the weakness seen over the past two months.”
As states reopen, so are open houses, and buyers have been coming out in force, if masked. Record low mortgage rates, combined with strong pent-up demand from before the pandemic and a new desire to leave urban downtowns due to the pandemic, are driving buyers back to the single-family home market. It remains to be seen if this is simply the pent-up demand or a long-term trend.
Link to CNBC Article
The drone video tour:
Here’s a snapshot of the coronavirus market – there are plenty of lookers:
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
