San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

by Jim the Realtor | Oct 27, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

What a difference compared to the second half of 2019:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Last month I said, “Will the September & October indices hit 2.0%? Likely!”

From cnbc.com:

“A trend of accelerating increases in the National Composite Index began in August 2019 but was interrupted in May and June, as Covid-related restrictions produced modestly-decelerating price gains,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

“The last time that the National Composite matched August’s 5.7% growth rate was 25 months ago, in July 2018. If future reports continue in this vein, we may soon be able to conclude that the Covid-related deceleration is behind us. ”

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego reported the highest annual gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in August. Phoenix led the way with a 9.9% price increase, followed by Seattle with an 8.5% increase and San Diego with a 7.6% increase.

Chicago, New York City and San Francisco saw the smallest annual home price gains in August.

S&P Case-Shiller is a repeat sales index, running on a three-month average; it measures the sale prices of similar homes over time. Other home price indexes, like the measure from the National Association of Realtors, show much higher price gains because they calculate the median price of all homes sold during the month.

Since there is currently much more sales activity on the higher end of the market, where there is more supply available, that is skewing the median price much higher. The Realtors reported a 15% annual price gain for September.

Prices are being fueled not just by strong demand but by record low mortgage rates. Rates set several new records over the summer and continued to do so in September as well. Low mortgage rates give buyers more purchasing power, allowing sellers to raise prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/home-prices-rise-at-.html

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, July

by Jim the Realtor | Sep 29, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

The July reading includes some data from May and June, so we’re getting through the negative covid impact, and swinging into the positive! The next 2-3 readings should be at least this high:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Will the September & October indices hit 2.0%? Likely!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

by Jim the Realtor | Aug 27, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 4 comments

I’ve been pedaling so fast these days, I forgot all about the Case-Shiller Index on Tuesday:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The corona might have slowed down pricing a tad, but with the ultra-low rates, we should be back to 1.0% monthly increases over the next few readings.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, May

by Jim the Realtor | Jul 28, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

The index in May and June might ‘decelerate’, but the usual seasonal surge in our Case-Shiller Index should be delayed this year.  The index is hitting all-time highs while we are in a recession, officially!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

From cnbc:

Nationally, prices rose 4.5% annually in May, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. That is down from the 4.6% gain in April.

Home prices in the 10-city composite increased 3.1% annually, down from 3.3% in the previous month. The 20-city composite rose 3.7% year over year, down from 3.9% in April (Detroit was excluded from the composite due to data collection issues).

“More data will obviously be required in order to know whether May’s report represents a reversal of the previous path of accelerating prices or merely a slight deviation from an otherwise intact trend,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Even if prices continue to decelerate, that is quite different from an environment in which prices actually decline.”

Home values increased in all 19 of the cities for which data was available, but the gains accelerated in just three. Prices were accelerating in 12 cities in April and 18 cities in March.

Regionally, price gains in Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa continued to be the strongest in the nation. Phoenix posted a 9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.8% increase and Tampa with a 6% increase. Price gains were smallest in Chicago, New York and San Francisco.

San Diego Case Shiller Index, April

by Jim the Realtor | Jun 30, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

The local Case-Shiller Index for April rose again, which makes you wonder how big the 2020 selling season could have been without the ‘rona – though if more sellers would have listed their home for sale, and rates were higher, the price increases probably wouldn’t have been so pronounced. Buyers can’t get a break!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

From cnbc.com:

Home prices strengthened in April, despite a national economic shutdown and a sharp drop in home sales due to the coronavirus.

Prices for existing homes rose 4.7% compared with April 2019, and up from 4.6% in the previous month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index. Price gains have been accelerating since autumn.

The 10-City Composite rose 3.4% annually, which was unchanged from March. The 20-City Composite increased 4% year over year, up from 3.9% in the previous month. Detroit continues to be excluded from 20-City Composite due to price reporting issues caused by the pandemic.

Cities with the strongest annual price gains were Phoenix, Seattle and Minneapolis. They reported increases of  8.8%, 7.3% and 6.4% respectively. Twelve of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2020 versus the year ending March 2020.

“April’s housing price data continue to be remarkably stable,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The price trend that was in place pre-pandemic seems so far to be undisturbed, at least at the national level.”

Record low mortgage rates have been giving buyers more purchasing power, thereby helping to keep prices strong. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage, however, did jump briefly in March, which would have factored into April closed sales. Rates have since pulled back.

Sales of existing homes dropped to the slowest pace in a decade in April, according to the National Association of Realtors, as open houses were shuttered and the entire house hunting process went online. Not only did buyers pull back, but sellers either waited to list their homes or those already on the market pulled their listings.

But home sales have rebounded quickly and dramatically, with signed contracts on existing homes in May making the strongest monthly jump since the Realtors began tracking the metric in 2001. The supply of homes for sale continues drop, even as new listings now come on the market. Demand is incredibly strong, suggesting that prices will only get hotter in the coming months.

“As states and businesses continue expanding activity, homebuyers are showing increasing interest in purchasing homes, particularly those looking to take advantage of enticingly low mortgage rates,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at realtor.com. “However, extremely scarce inventory, tight mortgage underwriting and high unemployment continue to be the main challenges for many buyers. The latest weekly housing data shows national inventory is on a steep downward trend.”