San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

by Jim the Realtor | May 26, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

The local Case-Shiller Index for March had the biggest monthly increase in 2+ years, and helps to show why we are getting back to a healthy market quickly. March is usually a strong month though:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

From cnbc:

The strength in March prices came even as mortgage rates bumped sharply higher during the month. That should have given homebuyers less purchasing power. Rates began falling precipitously after that and hit a new record low late this month.

“As states are cautiously reopening business activity and people are looking at summer plans in a new light, the reality of 25 million unemployed Americans is casting looming clouds over the horizon,” said George Ratiu, senior economist at realtor.com.” For homebuyers, low availability coupled with still-rising prices are overshadowing the benefit of historically low mortgage rates.”

The March numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since they are 2 months old and are calculated using a three-month running average.

“Housing prices have not yet registered any adverse effects from the governmental suppression of economic activity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Lazzara said. “As much of the U.S. economy remained shuttered in April, next month’s data may show a more noticeable impact.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/26/coronavirus-home-prices-gained-strength-in-march-sp-case-shiller-says.html

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Feb

by Jim the Realtor | Apr 28, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

This year’s month-over-month gain in San Diego is about half of what it was in February 2018 & 2019.

“The big question now, is how quickly the home listings will awaken after the pause or will unemployment drag down purchase activity going forward.  If buyers come back faster than sellers, it could cause prices to push even higher as buyers compete over the slim choices.”

Bill Banfield, Quicken Loans Executive Vice President of Capital Markets

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

“Results for the month were broad-based, with gains in every city in our 20-City Composite; 17 of the 20 cities saw accelerating prices,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Price gains continued to be strongest in Phoenix, Seattle, Tampa and Charlotte. In February, Phoenix home values were up 7.5% year over year, followed by Seattle with a 6% increase, and Tampa and Charlotte with 5.2% increases. Chicago, New York and Dallas saw the smallest annual price gains at 0.7%, 1.5% and 2.5% respectively.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Dec.

by Jim the Realtor | Feb 25, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The 4.7% increase year-over-year only looks that impressive because of the 6-month decline we experienced at the end of 2018.  The index has been flat since July.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Nov

by Jim the Realtor | Jan 28, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

Comparing to the dreadful end of 2018 doesn’t tell us much, but at least we had a positive move between October and November – we’re almost back to where we were in September!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

There were times that our index was going up 1% per month, and now it’s around +1% per quarter which is a good pace for buyers – it’s not going up fast enough for them to feel they need to grab something quickly.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Oct.

by Jim the Realtor | Dec 31, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

Above is the non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index for the last ten years.

We had slight drop in the October index (the lower mortgage rates have kept us about even with last year) but in this decade we had a 64% increase!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Will our index go up another 64% in the coming decade? Probably.

If it only goes up HALF of what it did this decade, it would be a win!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Sept

by Jim the Realtor | Nov 26, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

Our index stayed flat, which is better than last year!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Will we have a slight descent for the next few months, and send our index back into the 250s?  If so, 2020 will probably look a lot like 2018 and 2019, price-wise.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, August

by Jim the Realtor | Oct 29, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

Mortgage rates have been 1% lower than they were a year ago, yet sales are flat….and so are prices. We had a 2.3% improvement year-over-year, which is actually the best percentage improvement in 2019.  But look at how our Y-o-Y changes have pancaked this year, compared to 2018:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

This latest month-over-month reading did go negative again, just like it did in August of last year.  Will we have six consecutive months of negative readings in 2019, and send our index back into the 250s?  If so, 2020 will probably look a lot like 2018 and 2019, price-wise.