San Diego Case-Shiller Index, May

by Jim the Realtor | Jul 30, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 2 comments

We had a solid 1% increase in our local index M-o-M, and it was about the same year-over-year:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

From cnbc on today’s Pending-Home-Sales increase of 2.8% nationally:

“If mortgage rates remain near recent lows, we could see prices pick back up as a result of improved affordability as well as the possibility of more limited inventory available,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.

The supply of homes for sale had been rising for much of this year but flattened in June. Some are predicting inventory will be lower again this fall. That is causing more competition in the market.

“Homes are selling at a breakneck pace, in less than a month, on average, for existing homes and three months for newly constructed homes,” said Yun. “Homeowners’ equity in real estate has doubled over the past six years to now nearly $16 trillion. But the number of potential buyers exceeds the number of homes available. We need to see sizable growth in inventory, particularly of entry-level homes, to assure wider access to homeownership.”

Regionally, the Realtors’ pending home sales index rose 2.7% in the Northeast month-to-month and was 0.9% higher than a year ago. In the Midwest, the index grew 3.3% monthly and 1.7% annually. In the South, the index increased 1.3% monthly and 1.4% annually. In the West, pending sales jumped 5.4% monthly and were 2.5% higher than a year ago.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, April

by Jim the Realtor | Jun 25, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

Yesterday’s Zillow index showed San Diego’s pricing to be fairly flat, and now April’s Case-Shiller Index has a similar-sounding +0.8% increase year-over-year.

We’ve bounced back from six months of negative readings, just to get back to where we were last year – and we’re still not as high as the June and July 2018 readings:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The high-tier index is similar with just a +0.5% increase over last April, and not as high as June, 2018:

From cnbc:

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, March

by Jim the Realtor | May 28, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

I calculated the monthly increase incorrectly last month – it’s right now, and it shows that the index has picked up steam lately. But we’re still slightly below last year’s peak of 258 in June & July:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The index is 3.4% higher than it was at the beginning of 2018, but it could be worse.

This NYC broker says homeowners in Manhattan can figure what their home was worth in May, 2018, and then subtract 10% to find today’s value – yikes!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan

by Jim the Realtor | Mar 27, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 3 comments

I was so giddy yesterday about dropping rates that the latest Case-Shiller Index didn’t cross my mind. Our doomer guy jumped on the sixth consecutive decline above, but that was when we were nearing 5% mortgage rates and full market stall-out. Now that the sub-4% punch bowl is back, we should see the usual six months of increases begin again with the next reading:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The 2.8% drop over the last six months is nothing but a flesh wound – sellers aren’t going to panic until there are big chunks of decline per month. The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005 – about where we are today!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Dec.

by Jim the Realtor | Feb 26, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales | 1 comment

We are back to more-normal appreciation levels now.  After dropping for the last six months in a row, the non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index for San Diego is just +2.3% year-over-year.

In the graph above, you can see how the index goes up about ten points in the first half of every year, but then pricing tapers off.  Last year, the tapering started earlier, and was more pronounced.

It makes you wonder what will happen in 2019? The same? Or worse?  It won’t be better unless mortgage rates slip under 4%.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005 – about where we are today!

“Slower price appreciation coupled with lower mortgage rates in 2019 should help homebuyers who haven’t been priced out of the market,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “While 2018 started with a real estate frenzy and ended with a fizzle, we could see 2019’s slow beginning start to pick up later in the year.”

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Nov

by Jim the Realtor | Jan 29, 2019 | Jim's Take on the Market, Same-House Sales

The non-seasonally-adjusted San Diego Case-Shiller Index dropped again in November, which seems like 100 years ago now that we’re rolling into February. A couple of notes:

1. If you like your data processed and refined, the seasonally-adjusted index has been flat the last four months. I like mine raw and uncooked.
2. They revise these numbers slightly every month.

We are roughly back to where we were in March.  You could make the case that the better-quality homes sell for a premium during the selling season while the others wait, and then some of those go for a slight discount in the off-season.  It might be the pattern for every year, going forward.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

The previous peak was 250.34 in November, 2005.