Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.
Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.
While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.
“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”
Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.
Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. In his view, the fact that new cases were being identified at a slower rate was more telling than the number of new cases itself. It was an early sign that the trajectory of the outbreak had shifted.
Think of the outbreak as a car racing down an open highway, he said. Although the car is still gaining speed, it’s not accelerating as rapidly as before.
“This suggests that the rate of increase in the number of deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.
Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.
This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.
E-notary companies are out there….can we close a sale with one now?
There still needs to be at least one personal interaction with a stranger to be able to finance the purchase of a house in San Diego County, says the boss at First American Title today:
Good morning – sorry, the county recorders are still not accepting a document notarized remotely. The county still requires wet signatures and original notary seal.
Cash buyers wouldn’t need a signature notarized if purchasing as individuals, and not in a trust.
Yesterday, President Cuomo mentioned serological testing, which could end this crisis sooner than we think. Donna and I both had a wicked run with a virus in January with symptoms that sound similar to the Covid-19, and even if it was only a cousin, maybe the antibodies will ward off the real thing. If so, I’d like to get back to work!
Just how many people actually have Covid-19? How long will it be before we can safely begin to ease social distancing? And is this a one-off crisis or are we now facing the threat of repeated waves of coronavirus pandemics on an annual basis?
These are all questions to which scientists around the globe are racing to answer through serological testing – detecting tell-tale antibodies in the blood to identify the real number of people in a population who have ever come in contact with the virus. Over the coming months, the results will determine everything from how long society’s shutdown needs to be, to evaluating the effectiveness of the new vaccines on the horizon.
Right now, the NHS tests for Sars-CoV-2 – the virus that causes Covid-19 – through a diagnostic technique called polymerase chain reaction (PCR) which detects the virus’ genetic material in oral or nasal swabs. It’s highly effective, but it only returns a positive result when the virus is still present in the body.
Serological testing will tell us how many people crossed paths with the coronavirus weeks or even months ago – sometimes without knowing – a figure which epidemiologists modelling the spread of Covid-19, and governments need to know to make accurate public health decisions.
“You’ll have heard [the UK’s chief scientific advisor] Patrick Vallance talk about herd immunity as a useful outcome if enough people have had the infection,” says Andrew Freedman, consultant in infectious diseases at Cardiff University. “That’s something you can determine if you do serologic testing on enough representative people across the country. If you find that 60 per cent or more of the population have got antibodies to the virus, so they’ve already had the infection, this would tell you that herd immunity might be successful and it’ll stop spreading. So then the government could stop the social distancing and isolation precautions at the moment.”
As the wait for new drugs for Covid-19 goes on, serological testing is also likely to be used to identify people who have recovered from the virus, who may be asked to donate their blood as a form of emergency treatment for elderly or vulnerable people that are acutely ill. This is a treatment idea for virulent infections which dates back to the Spanish influenza, more than a century ago.
“Serology can be used to identify people with high levels of neutralising antibodies that can kill the virus,” says Theel. “Their plasma would be tested, collected, screened for HIV and hepatitis, and then administered to ill patients. The idea being these antibodies could quickly activate and kill the virus in those sick people.”
Other countries have bounced back in six weeks. Could it happen to us?
BEIJING — The grocery stores were brimming with shoppers and produce. Around the corner, a line was forming outside a stall selling pillowy white steamed buns.
The gray, brick-lined alleys of this old imperial capital, deserted several weeks ago, were congested again by newly licensed drivers struggling to park their outsize Audis.
I knew then: Beijing was slowly, unmistakably, returning to normal.
Six weeks earlier, I had watched China shut itself down as the coronavirus epidemic first exploded in Wuhan, and then spilled across the country and beyond. For my work, I traveled around China, down empty boulevards, through empty airports, in empty train cars. I saw China’s whole economic machinery, from the curbside noodle shops to sprawling tech campuses, clank to a halt as the government pulled out every stop to contain the virus’s spread.
To help the nationwide social-mapping effort — and, I suspect, feed the government’s ever-growing appetite for personal data — I begrudgingly gave my mobile number to government workers at every train station, checked in via smartphone app to enter office buildings and recited my passport number just to eat at a rare restaurant that remained open.
By mid-February, the clampdown tightened further.
Checkpoints were erected in a grid layout at every intersection in central Beijing. Residential neighborhoods were sealed after 10 p.m. Like all travelers arriving from out of town after a brief excursion, I was placed in quarantine at home for 14 days.
I emerged in recent days, precisely at a moment when life was returning to Chinese streets while much of the West seemed to be spiraling into panic and chaos. For countless others and me, the tilting scales raised the question: Are China’s strict measures a model for the rest of the world?
The truth is, I don’t know.
What I have seen is that success in containing the epidemic has not been exclusive to authoritarian systems; it has been used in democratic governments in Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea that also appear to be heading for quick recoveries.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s order marks the first statewide mandatory restrictions in the United States to help combat the outbreak. It went into effect at midnight Thursday, meaning Californians should not leave home except for essential things such as food, prescriptions, health care and commuting to jobs considered crucial.
The restrictions will remain in place until further notice and come a day after Newsom warned that more than half the state is projected to be infected by the virus in two months.
“This is a moment where we need some straight talk,” Newsom told reporters. “As individuals and as a community, we need to do more to meet this moment.”
The order will not be enforced by law enforcement, he added.
“I don’t believe the people of California need to be told through law enforcement that it’s appropriate just to home-isolate, protect themselves,” Newsom said. “We are confident that the people of the state of California will abide by it and do the right thing.”
What will it mean for our local real estate market?
Our title and escrow companies are functioning (which might be case-by-case), and the county recorder’s office is accepting documents. Those electronic filings are coming in handy now – remember our tour of the process at First American Title? Link to Youtube.
The banks are open, but that doesn’t mean that mortgage companies will be funding loans. But we should be able to close sales where the buyers are paying cash.
Sellers will be reluctant to agree to any discounts requested by buyers on deals already in escrow, so some of them will fall out. Few will close for prices that are way under market, and maybe none – sellers would rather wait and get more money later this year (which will be the common perception).
Let’s figure that most of the existing escrows will find a way to close, either now or later.
What about new deals?
Are sellers willing to price their homes so attractively that buyers will make deals based on video alone? How many listings will have a video presentation that makes buyers comfortable enough to make an offer that is close to list price? Not many.
Sales will slow to a trickle over the next month or two.
Then at some magical moment, the coronavirus threat will be declared over, and we’ll get back to it. Kayla was listening to the D-E broadcast yesterday, and Howard Lorber recalled the NYC market after 9/11. He said that Manhattan sales came to a standstill for the rest of the year, but in January 2002, their market took off like a rocket.
There will be a scramble by the pent-up buyers AND sellers who really wanted to make a deal earlier, and who will want an early piece of the action. The naysayers will somewhat-reluctantly fall in line, and we’ll be back in business.
Will sellers need to discount? Here’s a likely scenario:
Buyer: I want a discount.
Seller: No, the scare is over!
Buyer: But there are lower comps now.
Seller: The coronavirus caused those. The ‘rona is over!
Buyer: I’m only buying if you discount the price.
Seller: No problem, step aside while I wait to get my price.
Could we see a surge of inventory once the immediate threat slows? Will the scare cause more people to sell – especially the older homeowners? It’s doubtful – after sitting at home for 1-2 months straight, the older homeowners are going to give up and pack it in. To have to re-ignite the painful ideas of finding a suitable home and packing up all the stuff will be even more uncomfortable. If there is a surge of older Californians not surviving the virus, I guess you could make the case that a few more inherited properties will come to market. But probably not rushed – a flatter curve.
Could this turn out better than expected?
The politicians’ rush to overreact is understandable, and they want to be heroes in the end. The numbers in China are already subsiding – could we get lucky and our strong reactions combined with our suburban lifestyles end up minimizing the impact?
We also come into contact with fewer people when we commute. According to the 2017 American Community Survey, more than 80 percent of Americans either work from home or commute alone by car. In Beijing and X’ian, on the other hand, only 30 percent of commuters travel by car. Italians similarly use public transit much more frequently than do most Americans. A paper from the Brookings Institution says that the average resident of Milan, the epicenter of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak, takes 350 trips a year on public transit compared to 17 for the average resident of San Diego. It’s a lot easier to get sick from the sneezing person next to you on the bus than it is driving by yourself.
These data suggest why New York seems especially hard hit by the pandemic. New York is one of the most densely populated places anywhere, with nearly 28,000 people per square mile. (Even Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus originated, has only about 3,200 people per square mile.) And most of those New Yorkers don’t drive to work; New York’s Metropolitan Transit Authority says that more than 80 percent of rush-hour commuters to the central business district in Manhattan take transit. With a few exceptions in Staten Island and the fringes of the outer boroughs, New Yorkers live, work, commute and shop in much closer proximity to other people than almost anywhere else in the United States. It’s no wonder the virus is spreading rapidly there and in the commuter suburbs.
For now, our lives will be suspended, and the real estate market will wait it out. If there are going to be any deals, they will be in the next 30 days – but don’t expect much. For sellers, it’s too easy to look ahead.
They won’t foreclose on you, but your credit score will be affected. From the AP:
Certain borrowers nervous about missed house payments got some relief as two major government backers of mortgages have said they’re stopping foreclosure work for the next 60 days.
The Federal Housing Administration and Fannie Mae announced moves to help out borrowers behind on house payments as part of effort to mitigate the financial impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
Loan servers of FHA and Fannie Mae loans have been directed to stop starting new foreclosure actions; suspend foreclosures in progress; and not evicting residents of foreclosed properties with loans backed by these agencies. Borrowers in financial trouble are encouraged to contact their loan servicer to inquire about various relief programs.
“Today’s actions will allow households who have an FHA-insured mortgage to meet the challenges of COVID-19 without fear of losing their homes, and help steady market concerns,” said U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson. “The health and safety of the American people is of the utmost importance and the halting of all foreclosure actions and evictions for the next 60 days will provide homeowners with some peace of mind during these trying times.”
Kayla flew home from Manhattan this morning on Delta – there were only 20 people on the plane!
Her Douglas Elliman offices are closed through March 31st and probably longer. Hopefully she didn’t bring the bug back with her, but it’s better than her catching it there and having to cope with it alone.
She loves being in Manhattan, and plans to go back, of course.
But what will the market be like for newer agents everywhere?
The big, successful agents will use this off-time to prepare additional marketing materials, and be ready to go once the virus is done. We’ll have 1-3 months of pent-up supply and demand, so we’ll try to squeeze the whole 6-month selling season into 60 days. The crafty experienced agents will be glad to facilitate those sales, but there won’t be enough to go around for everyone.
I’m guessing that we will probably sell 20% to 30% fewer homes this year, and it could be less. The sales will drop off long before sellers think about dumping on price, and because the virus isn’t a permanent change in the marketplace, it will be too easy for sellers to wait it out instead. It will be tough on every agent who is on the edge.
Somebody said today that they expect to see big price declines and foreclosures in the next 2-3 months, but that’s not happening. The moratoriums are in place, and homeowners who can’t make payments will get as much time as they need. It’s more likely that we will experience the Big Stall-Out, with the market still airborne and just waiting for the engine to kick back on.
Here are tips for those who don’t regularly work from home:
Prepare and Get Job-Comfortable
Get ready for work every morning like you are going to physically go into work. Dress up, do your hair — whatever you’d normally do. This puts you in a professional mindset. Try to find yourself a dedicated and comfortable spot to work that you can associate with your job and leave when you’re off the clock — that means get off the couch, and definitely out of bed.
Set Ground Rules With Others
Set ground rules with other people in your home or who share your space for when you work. Children need clear rules about what they can and cannot do during that time. Additionally, just because you’re home and can let service people into the house or take care of pets doesn’t mean other family members should assume you will always do it. If that’s how you choose to divide up the domestic labor, that’s fine, but if you simply take it all on by default because you’re home, you may feel taken advantage of, and your productivity may suffer.
What About The Kids?
If you are working from home with kids in tow, you’ll need to make a plan for education and entertainment. Stock up on books and puzzles. Also, it’s OK to use streaming services (here are good recommendations for kid-appropriate content).
Repurpose Your Commute
A major perk of working from home is ditching the commute. Use this time in the morning for a workout, self-renewal, or family time.
Create Lists And Plan Your Day
Every morning, create a list of what you will deliver by the end of the day. If it’s helpful, scribble these down the night before so you can dive straight into work in the morning. If you don’t have a physical notepad handy, use the “Google Keep” in G Suite. Keep offers a variety of tools for taking notes, including text, lists, images, and audio.
Stay Off Social Media
Social media is designed to make it easy for you to open and browse quickly. To counteract your social networks’ ease of use during work hours, remove them from your browser shortcuts or log out of every account. You might even consider working primarily in a private or an incognito browser window. This ensures you stay signed out of all your accounts and each web search you conduct doesn’t autocomplete the word you’re typing.
Phone Calls
We don’t talk on the phone as much these days, and if working from home requires phone calls in place of your regular face-to-face meetings, then warm up first. Make a couple of less-important calls, or at least talk out loud for a minute before making the most-important calls. We call it, “getting the marbles out of your mouth”.
Show Your Face
When possible, use video over the standard conference call to help create more interactions and avoid loneliness. Checkout video-conferencing resources such as Zoom, BlueJeans, Skype, or Lifesize. For those unexpectedly working from home who are also trying to reduce face-to-face contact, set up a video call with your colleagues or manager once a week to check in.
Bring The Outdoors In
If you do not have any greens in your designated work from home location, consider adding some indoor plants to create a more inviting and creative space. Plus, they make your home’s air healthier!
Move Around
Don’t get stuck at your computer for long lengths of time – schedule breaks. Walk around the house, or around the block – get some fresh air!
Listen to Music That Inspires
During the week, music is the soundtrack to your career (cheesy, but admit it, it’s true). And at work, the best playlists are diverse playlists — you can listen to music that matches the energy of the project you’re working on. Video game soundtracks are excellent at this. In the game itself, this lyric-free music is designed to help you focus; it only makes sense that it would help you focus on your work as well.
Stay Out of The Kitchen
When you’re in your own home, it can be tempting to spend time preparing a really nice breakfast and lunch for yourself, chopping and cooking included. Don’t use precious minutes making your food the day of work — cook it the night before. And don’t let the virus be a reason why you add 10-15 pounds!
The California Association of Realtors published their coronavirus addendum/amendment today.
Those with an existing contract aren’t obligated to sign it, but they mentioned the ‘Force Majeure Clause’, which is a common clause in contracts that essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, such as a war, strike, riot, crime, plague, or an event described by the legal term act of God(hurricane, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, etc.), prevents one or both parties from fulfilling their obligations under the contract.
I did whip through our standard contract, but didn’t find the words “force majeure” anywhere in the text, but it is probably in the Civil Code. In practice, most force majeure clauses do not excuse a party’s non-performance entirely, but only suspend it for the duration of the force majeure.
The CAR form suggests a 30-day extension, but whatever works for you. If the good-faith deposit is at risk, they are asking the sellers nicely to give it back to the buyers if they can’t qualify due to COVID-19 issues.
We’re doing fine here at headquarters – how about you?
We’ve primarily worked out of the house for the last 17 years, so we aren’t experiencing any disruption just because we’re stuck at home. We’re still having two listings being prepped for market, and haven’t had any escrows fall out yet. So far, so good.
Our boss suggested that we don’t do open houses for the foreseeable future, and to use gloves and sanitizer for individual showings. Tours via FaceTime or Skype are encouraged as well.
Here’s a snapshot of my hotsheet this morning – an equal compliment of new listings, price changes, solds, and new pendings (six each):
The volume will be light, but as long as we keep seeing new pendings, the market is working!
