Face-Covering Law

by | May 2, 2020 | Virus | 4 comments

Thanks to the UT for providing this summary:

What exactly is the county’s new rule on face coverings?

The law requires that all San Diego County residents wear a face covering whenever they are outside and within 6 feet of someone who is not from their household. In order to comply safely with this rule, residents should always have their face covering either around their neck or easily at hand so they can place it quickly over their face when they encounter someone. Children under the age of 2 are not required to wear a mask, as well as people with certain disabilities.

What about when I’m inside a store or at work?

The new order requires the use of a face covering in all stores. It also requires them for offices when you are within 6 feet of another person. Many businesses have already instituted mask requirements for shoppers, including Vons and Albertsons. Costco will require face coverings for all shoppers nationwide beginning Monday.

What about when I’m driving, exercising or at the beach?

Dr. Wilma Wooten, the county’s public health officer, said on Thursday that the face-covering, 6-foot rule must be practiced at newly reopened golf courses, parks and at the beach. Masks are not required in the ocean water or for joggers on a trail. Masks are not required while driving, unless there is someone in the vehicle who is not from the same household.

How long will this new face covering order last?

(more…)

Pending Sales By County

by | May 1, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings, Virus

Yesterday we saw that our NSDCC sales for April should be down about 40% year-over-year, and the graph above shows about the same for average daily pending sales in San Diego County.

With pendings down 40%, and deals closing harder, it probably means that the YoY decline in May sales will be 50% or more.

We were going to have to live with fewer sales at some point – and it’s here!

CAR Market Update April 22 2020

Economist Talk

by | Apr 30, 2020 | Boomer Liquidations, Boomers, Jim's Take on the Market, Virus | 4 comments

Matthew does a statistical comparison of today vs. 2008 in this video below. Important to note how his stats show how comfortable sellers are today, and I’ll add that even if homeowners lose their job and stop making payments, it would take a year or two before you’d see foreclosures:

Could the coronnavirus get so bad that it triggers the boomer liquidations? Maybe, and if so, the boomer sales would still be spread out over time because homeowners – especially the long-timers – will resist leaving the comforts of home for as long as possible, and they will hope that waiting out the virus will lead to a better market.

Corona By Zip +25 Days

by | Apr 29, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, Virus

For a county of 3.3 million people, we’re doing good. An update on stats by area:

Area by Zip Code
April 2nd Count
April 27th Count
% Increase
Carlsbad (4 zips)
37
51
+38%
Carmel Valley
21
31
+48%
Del Mar
11
17
+55%
Encinitas
23
30
+23%
La Jolla
29
35
+21%
PB/MB
22
34
+55%
Rancho Santa Fe
12
12
+0%
San Diego Downtown
29
55
+90%
Solana Beach
4
5
+25%


More New Listings

by | Apr 27, 2020 | Graphs of Market Indicators, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Virus

One key to any potential comeback is having more homes to sell.

The weekly counts above are the net effect of new listings minus new pendings. When we have a good week of net new pendings (like we did this week with +13), it means a positive move by the new listings is even more impressive.  Let’s also note how different this year started.

Last year we averaged 103 new NSDCC listings per week, and today’s count was 79 for the past week, so we’re not far off our normal springtime pace. We can probably expect a very active summer!

California Showings Update

by | Apr 26, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Realtor, Showings, Virus | 1 comment


Showings have steadily improved – here are the percentages off the 2020 weekly average:

April 13: -60.4%

April 19: -41.1%

April 25: -21.7%

It looks like they re-adjust their graph based on the new weekly average.

The top graph shows that on March 28th (the last day of agents being considered non-essential), showings were off about 70% from the weekly 2020 average. Today’s graph only shows the bottom to be at -49% (on April 6th & 12th). So the improvement has actually been better than today’s graph portrays.

Did anyone expect that?

Buyers want to get a jump on the market – plus realtors have to eat.

Effect From Last Outbreak

by | Apr 25, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Virus

The succulents are getting attention during the break!

Excerpted from the latimes.com:

Data released Thursday from real estate company Zillow show the number of deals entering escrow has fallen off a cliff since mid-March. But so too has the number of owners who are listing their house or condo for sale.

Because the market isn’t being flooded yet with listings, lower demand is being met with lower supply, and prices are holding relatively steady.

Jeff Tucker, an economist at Zillow, summed it up as such: “Like a canoe being carried by two people who drop both ends simultaneously, the market slowdown may not tip clearly in favor of buyers or sellers.”

Research from Zillow indicates a similar situation played out in Hong Kong in 2003 during the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. Home prices didn’t fall much, while the number of transactions plunged as people kept their distance from one another to save lives. The market, along with the economy, then bounced back once the epidemic was over.

SARS lasted several months in Hong Kong and killed 774 people worldwide. In the United States alone, almost 50,000 have lost their lives to COVID-19 so far. And social distancing edicts, or surges in the death count from relaxing measures, could roil the economy for many months to come.

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