NSDCC Sales, April 1-15

by | Apr 21, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Virus

The closed sales in May will likely be worse than April – which hasn’t been too bad so far (just -26% yoy).  We have 82 pendings currently that have opened escrow this month.

NSDCC April 1-15 Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
Avg DOM
2017
129
$533/sf
$1,275,000
42
2018
117
$557/sf
$1,255,000
43
2019
119
$567/sf
$1,410,000
56
2020
88
$565/sf
$1,382,500
39

We were off to a good start in 2020 prior to the coronavirus, so not surprised that the momentum kept these sales closing. But each of these buyers wired their funds into escrow in the midst of the some of the worst news they have ever heard in their life – and they still closed.

Impact of Coronavirus on Real Estate

by | Apr 16, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Virus

March 12th was the day that US stock markets suffered the greatest single-day percentage fall since 1987, and the day after Tom Hanks and Rudy Gobert tested positive – the latter shutting down the NBA season. Let’s call it the day that the coronavirus started having a major impact on real estate sales.

NSDCC Stats Between March 12th and April 12th

Listing Status
New Listings
With/Canc/Exp/Hold
Pend/Sold Went Off-Market
2018
479
102
285
2019
527
157
213
2020
281
213
137

The Pend/Sold counts of previous years have all closed escrow.

This year’s count of 137 includes 99 that are still pending, and may not make it to closing.

Although realtors were not considered essential workers for nine days in this period, it looks like we’re going to have 50% to 60% fewer sales.

When Will the Market Comeback?

by | Apr 15, 2020 | Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, Market Surge, The Future, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links, Virus, Why You Should Hire Jim as your Buyer's Agent, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

Everything seems like “If” these days, but if we had a market comeback, the dates of a modified and compressed selling season would be fairly predictable, looking at it logically.

The actual results will be a matter of compression and intensity.

If there isn’t much of a market rebound, then we might only have a couple of hot weeks in July, and a lot of standing around, relatively.  If things get cooking, then we could have a solid 4-6 weeks before school starts (in red above) when the most sales will be made.

The dates in green is when buyers will be looking hard – and might be when the best deals are made.

Two to four weeks in October will be a lost cause, due to the election.  In December, buyers and sellers will both pack it in early for the holidays, and prepare to GET ‘ER DONE IN ’21!

Next year’s selling season is 11-12 months away – we gotta be ok by then, right?

Then all we have to do is get through 2020!

Coronavirus Peak in California

by | Apr 7, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor, Virus

Hat tip to Hank for sending in this research – they have California peaking next week:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent population health research center at UW Medicine, part of the University of Washington, that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME makes this information freely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions about how to allocate resources to best improve population health.

The announcement of the 10-year, $279-million investment in IHME by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation this year provides a moment in time to reflect and to look ahead. The Institute has grown from a core of three initial members in 2007 to a staff of more than 300; developed a powerful and constantly innovating research infrastructure; built a global network exceeding 2,000 collaborators; and perhaps most importantly, strengthened the field of health metrics science.

Throughout it all, IHME’s overarching objective, our true north, has been to create the most complete and up-to-date roadmap to help policymakers and donors determine how best to help people live longer, healthier lives.

Most states and the federal government are using their data for planning purposes:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

Corona Floaters

by | Apr 5, 2020 | Jim's Take on the Market, Virus | 2 comments

We let these boats pull into our dock and allow passengers to disembark and roll into our community. Then it turns out they each have several cases of coronavirus.  Shouldn’t we object to this?

Crew members employed on the Disney Wonder reportedly tested positive for COVID-19, according to several employees on the ship who wish to remain anonymous.

Yesterday around 6:30 P.M. the captain of the Disney Wonder announced over the ship’s intercom that 38 crew members on the cruise ship are positive for the virus.

Previously, the Disney Wonder sailed from New Orleans to the Port of San Diego, arriving on March 19th, where the passengers all disembarked. According to a local news station in San Diego, none of the 1,980 passengers or crew members, except for one crew member who had influenza, showed COVID-19 symptoms at the time.

Passengers disembarked after health screenings and were given recommendations to self-quarantine for 14 days, according to the medical director of the San Diego County’s epidemiology department, Dr. Eric McDonald. It was during this time at their respective homes that multiple passengers reported testing positive, Disney Cruise Line told the local media in San Diego.

By the end of March one passenger and one crew member had both tested positive for COVID-19. The Port of San Diego later confirmed that multiple passengers and two crew members had tested positive. Another local newspaper reported that one crew member had been taken ashore for emergency medical treatment due to COVID-19.

Dr. McDonald was quoted as saying a week ago that several of the ships crew, who remain aboard, have required medical attention for suspected COVID infections.

According to crew members on the Disney Wonder, five crew members with COVID-19 have been sent to shore-side hospitals for medical treatment.

I first mentioned coronavirus on the Disney Wonder on March 28th when I posted a article from a local NBC station in San Diego.  All of the crew members who subsequently contacted me complain that they are under strict instructions from Disney not to speak to the media or post information like this on social media.

The Disney Wonder has remained in port in San Diego since March 19th, except to go to sea to discharge waste.  Unlike the controversy surrounding the recent arrival of the foreign-flagged HAL Zaandam and Rotterdam in Fort Lauderdale and the Coral Princess in Miami, the Disney Wonder (which also flies a foreign flag) has escaped the controversy of a foreign-flagged ship using the medical resources of a U.S. port city.

Disney is not the only cruise line with a ship in San Diego with COVID-19 affecting its crew and guests. A cruise ship passenger and three crew members from the Celebrity Eclipse which arrived in San Diego last week tested positive for coronavirus.

Disney Cruise Line previously announced that it extended the suspension of all new cruise departures through Tuesday, April 28, 2020. The cruise line has not yet changed the itinerary of the Disney Wonder which is scheduled to leave Vancouver, Canada on a cruise to Hawaii on April 29th. The Canadian government announced it will not allow any ship with more than 500 passengers to dock in any Canadian port until July 1, at the earliest.

Link to Cruiselawnews.com article

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