Migration Trends

by | Aug 26, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, Where to Move | 3 comments

From jbrec.com:

We now monitor domestic migration trends in near real time, using postal address change forms that are current within a few months. This data has given us far more conviction in expressing a positive demand outlook on 15 markets and a more cautious outlook on another 15 markets, as shown below. This data excludes international migration.

The winners: Strong housing demand

Strong migration continues in:

  1. Houston
  2. Jacksonville
  3. Charlotte
  4. San Antonio
  5. Fort Worth
  6. Nashville

Previously strong migration is now trending less strong than one year ago in:

  1. Dallas
  2. Atlanta
  3. Tampa
  4. Boise
  5. Orlando
  6. Raleigh-Durham

Previously strong migration is now trending to barely positive migration in:

  1. Phoenix
  2. Austin
  3. Las Vegas

The losers: Weak housing demand

Previously strong in-migration is now trending negatively in:

  1. Sacramento
  2. Riverside-San Bernardino

Previously small out-migration is now trending as a big out-migration in:

  1. Denver
  2. Salt Lake
  3. Philadelphia
  4. Seattle


Very negative domestic out-migration continues, which is likely somewhat offset by strong international migration, in:

  1. East Bay Area
  2. Orange County
  3. San Diego
  4. San Jose
  5. Miami
  6. Washington, DC
  7. Boston
  8. Chicago
  9. San Francisco

https://jbrec.com/insights/real-time-migration-data-30-winners-and-losers/

Do we need to label areas as winners and losers? The migration trends are heavily influenced by the cost of housing, and it’s no surprise that the most-expensive areas are having the most people leave – which will leave those areas even more exclusive and affluent.

You can blame politics, taxes, etc. as reasons for the moves, but is comes down to this:

Rich people are staying, and not-so-rich people are leaving – and that’s ok.

Need To Move Out-Of-State

by | Aug 23, 2023 | 2023, Boomers, Market Conditions, Where to Move

Unless you are among the very affluent, you need to move out-of-state to make it worth selling your home in San Diego. If that looks inevitable, do it while you are younger and can handle the challenge! Start by going through your stuff – your kids don’t want it and will dump most everything you leave behind.

While the median distance moved in the 2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers was 50 miles, one-quarter of buyers traveled over 470 miles to find their new home. Traditionally, buyers have stayed close to their past homes. From 1989 to 2021, the median distance moved was just 10 to 15 miles.

Based on this generational trend, it is not surprising that those who moved more than 470 miles from their past residence were more likely to be repeat home buyers. Just 11% were first-time buyers. This dispels one potential myth that has abounded in the last year: that first-time buyers are the ones making the move to find their first property far from their rental unit. It does happen, but it is more likely a repeat buyer who is making the distance move.

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/long-distance-movers-why-did-they-move-and-how

Hottest Markets

by | Aug 19, 2023 | Where to Move | 1 comment

San Diego’s market has to be as hot as any of these, and at a much-higher price point!

The national housing market might be in a slump, but some areas are sizzling like a summer heat wave.

For proof, look no further than the Realtor.com® June roundup of the Hottest Housing Markets. This month, the Hartford, CT, metropolitan area tops the list, followed by hottest markets stalwarts Manchester, NH, and Concord, NH.

To make the “hottest” list, a metro area must have a higher number of page views on Realtor.com, and a faster pace of selling, than in other areas of the country.

Four of the 20 hottest markets were in Connecticut in June, including Norwich, New Haven, Bridgeport, and, of course, Hartford. Many folks who moved to Hartford during the COVID-19 pandemic for the cheaper prices are now commuting to their offices in the New York City and Boston areas twice a week, says Hartford-area real estate agent Lisa Barall-Matt, who’s with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices.

House hunters aren’t just drawn to the lower prices, but the lifestyle as well.

“They’re looking for a place to raise families,” she says. “Younger buyers are looking for a place where they can walk to the center and dine outside, meet their friends, have lovely parks to go to. We’ve got beautiful beaches and lakes, all kinds of nice outdoor places.” That includes the Atlantic Ocean and multiple state and national forests and parks, all within an hour’s drive.

Hartford also boasts plenty of employment opportunities, including being the state capital and the unofficial hub of the insurance industry. Companies such as Aetna, The Travelers Companies, and Synchrony Financial all have offices there.

Recently, Barall-Matt says, she has helped buyers relocate from as far away as California, Florida, and Alabama.

One caveat: The number of homes for sale is still very low. So all that demand is making market conditions just as crazy as during the height of the pandemic. Recently, one of her buyers was in a bidding war with 36 other buyers, and lost to a higher bid, despite offering $45,000 over the asking price.

Hartford-area homes spent just 18 days on the market in June, less than half the national median.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/affordable-what-americas-20-hottest-housing-markets-all-have-in-common-now/

Moving To A New City

by | Aug 12, 2023 | Where to Move | 3 comments

Here we go again – people don’t want to leave San Diego! It will be interesting to see if this hot summer throughout the country causes more of the affluent people to head our way.

Based on an analysis of 100 metro areas, the following 10 cities had the highest net inflow of property searches on Redfin’s website. Net inflow is the number of people looking to move into a city minus the number of people looking to leave.

Las Vegas: 5,700
Phoenix: 5,300
Tampa, Florida: 5,000
Orlando, Florida: 4,900
Sacramento, California: 4,800
North Port-Sarasota, Florida: 4,700
Cape Coral, Florida: 4,100
Dallas: 4,100
Miami: 3,700
Houston: 3,600

For all cities on this list, the largest number of potential out-of-town homebuyers are from either Los Angeles, Seattle, New York or Chicago, according to the study. This makes sense, as those are some of the cities where the most homebuyers seemingly want to leave.

Here are the 10 metros with the largest net outflow of property searches, which measures the number of search queries interested in leaving a metro area minus the number of search queries about moving to that same city.

San Francisco: 28,100
New York City: 24,200
Los Angeles: 20,900
Washington, D.C.: 15,700
Chicago: 4,900
Boston: 4,400
Seattle: 3,900
Hartford, Connecticut: 3,500
Denver: 2,300
Detroit: 2,300

The search patterns suggest homebuyers are looking to leave large coastal hubs for cities in low-tax states that have considerably cheaper home prices.

For instance, most out-of-town buyers looking for properties in Las Vegas are from Los Angeles. The median cost of a home in Las Vegas is $412,500 as of June, nearly half the $975,000 median cost for homes in Los Angeles, according to Redfin’s data.

For the purposes of the study, a person browsing Redfin counts as a migrant if they’ve viewed 10 properties in another city over the three months ending June 2023. The net inflow and outflow rankings were compiled based on the total number of migrants.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/30/1-in-4-us-homebuyers-want-to-move-to-a-new-city.html

Least Expensive States

by | Aug 5, 2023 | Where to Move | 3 comments

If you want to really save some money, these are the states to consider – though you’ll have climate change!

Today we released a new report that reveals that while the average U.S. household spends $24,557 annually on the most essential household bills (which is 35% of the U.S. household median income of $70,784) and roughly $2,046 per month, many states rank well above or below this figure.

As U.S. households continue to grapple with an increased cost of living, those living in Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Maryland may be feeling more pressure as these states top the list as the most expensive, while West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Kentucky are listed as the most affordable.

Link to full article

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