by Jim the Realtor | Jul 20, 2023 | Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow |
At the beginning of 2023, the Zillow 1-year forecast for San Diego home values was -0.8%. In May, their expected 1-year appreciation rate in our local areas was around +3%.
Now they are guessing it will be around 4%….which might cause more sellers to wait longer!
SE Carlsbad – 92009
NE Carlsbad – 92010
SW Carlsbad – 92011
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
When is the best time to sell?
- When no one else is.
- When you have great comps (recent sales) around you.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 1, 2023 | Forecasts, Zillow |
Zillow, Goldman Sachs, and every economist thought the 2023 market would be all negative.
But now….
Goldman Sachs originally forecasted home prices to fall by double digits. However, they have released a report titled – “As interest rates climb, the global housing market is surprisingly stable”. In it, they stated: “House prices [are] leveling out more quickly and at a higher level than would normally be expected given the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Home prices are defying expectations and RISING in major economies such as the U.S., Australia and Canada.”
Now Zillow is forecasting 3%-ish appreciation here for the next year – which sounds like the old normal:
NW Carlsbad – 92008
SE Carlsbad – 92009
NE Carlsbad – 92010
SW Carlsbad – 92011
Carmel Valley – 92130
Del Mar – 92014
Encinitas – 92024
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
by Jim the Realtor | May 23, 2023 | 2023, Carlsbad, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow |
We received three offers on our new listing, and all were around $2,000,000….well under the list price.
Once you get over $2,000,000, the buyers are putting up some fight.
If the only strategy is to take the best offer – by far the most popular realtor strategy – what do you do? Just select your favorite $2,000,000 agent with biggest down payment and shortest escrow? Or wait another week (or more) and hope there are two in the bush?
Those are the only two choices being employed all around the county. Home sellers have no idea how much money they are leaving on the table – and neither do the agents. It doesn’t occur to anybody that there is any other way to transact.
Spruce them up the best you can. Do the open-house extravaganza. Then counter ALL offerors for their highest-and-best…..and then tell everyone the current high price, and ask them to beat it. When faced with losing the house, buyers are much more likely to keep bidding.
I haven’t found any other agent who does it this way, but I hope they are out there.
I had the sellers agree to raise our list price to the agreed-upon sales price in order to send a message to the rest of the marketplace. I don’t want any of the other listings nearby to drop their price, and I want to be supportive to other buyers in general that the market is fine. Three of the La Costa Valley Six listings have gone pending in the last week!
One more note. When possible, I want to pick the winner on Day Four – it is the peak of the buyer urgency, and interest drops off quickly. Once a listing is more than a month old, buyers are going to lowball – why would you want to be in that predictament? Look how the views taper off:
When the saves are running around 5% of the total views, the online presentation is being well-received. Buyers must like the location, the photos, and the price to want to save another Zillow listing!
by Jim the Realtor | May 17, 2023 | 2023, Zillow
Here are the Zillow estimates of appreciation over the next year – all are back into positive territory! If they are reading it correctly, it means they will have more increases coming over the next couple of months before the appreciation rate relaxes during the off-season.
Their accuracy doesn’t matter – it’s their impact on today’s home buyers that counts:
NW Carlsbad 92008
SE Carlsbad 92009
Encinitas 92024
La Jolla 92037
Rancho Santa Fe 92067
https://www.zillow.com/research/may-2023-home-value-sales-forecast-32643/
by Jim the Realtor | May 5, 2023 | Zillow |
Here’s a tip about the automated valuations.
We know that Zillow and Redfin automatically adjust their estimates to within a couple of bucks of the list price once a home goes on the open market, making their estimates worthless to the reader.
But Realtor.com doesn’t.
Here are their differences before and after our new listing hit the market yesterday:
BEFORE LISTING ON THE MLS:
TODAY:
If you want estimates of value on a house that is on the open market, check realtor.com.
Click below to see how the Zillow and Redfin estimates have changed:
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by Jim the Realtor | Mar 7, 2023 | Forecasts, Zillow |
We know that the perception is more important than the reality, especially for potential sellers. If they see some media coverage that is slightly positive, maybe more will come to market this year, instead of waiting for some vague unknown day in the future when the market gets ‘better’.
An excerpt:
Zillow economists now believe they’re done issuing downward revisions. In fact, they think the national housing market correction could be nearing its bottom.
Heading forward, Zillow economists expect U.S. home values as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) to rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024.
Among the 400 largest housing markets tracked by Zillow, the company expects 238 markets to see positive home price growth between January 2023 and January 2024, while it expects six markets to remain flat and 156 markets to notch a home price decline over the next 12 months. Simply put: Zillow expects only 39% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year.
Link to Fortune article
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 29, 2023 | Zillow
It looks like Zillow is sticking with their relatively flat forecasts for our local areas. It’s probably realistic if appreciation goes like it did in 2022 – everything gained in the spring selling season is given back in the off-season. Note how the ‘typical home value’ is still higher than it was a year ago in every area:
NW Carlsbad – 92008
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 21, 2022 | Forecasts, Why You Should List With Jim, Year-End Review, Zillow |
As the national leader of real estate, Zillow is attempting to guide people with data, thankfully. Their Home-Value Index has been decent, and I’ll take the -7% for San Diego….which means our premium areas haven’t felt much decline at all.
Their comment on current conditions isn’t ground-breaking but at least it offers some hope:
Activity in the housing market has slowed to a crawl this winter but the stage is set for a spring thaw: buyers can count on the usual springtime flood of new listings, and less frenzied competition than the last two spring selling seasons in the New Year. But if home shoppers really want to experience some deserted open houses, there’s no time like the present, because this lull won’t last long.
Here are their latest predictions about our local areas, all of which have values that are higher YoY:
NW Carlsbad
SE Carlsbad
NE Carlsbad
SW Carlsbad
Carmel Valley
Del Mar
Encinitas
La Jolla
Rancho Santa Fe
Let’s enjoy our stay in Plateau City – we may be here for a while!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 18, 2022 | Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow
If everyone is relying on the zestimates….are they any good?
It’s a scary thought that we’ve become dependant upon an algorithmic computation of home values run by a third party for profit. Good thing they got out of the home-buying business!
The zestimates have been more accurate lately, but it’s hard to track because they still adjust them once a home is listed for sale. When you get notified of a new listing, check their zestimate immediately because it takes them a few hours to fabricate a new zestimate.
Here are the zestimates that are dated before my last three listings hit the MLS:
This was run on August 11th. We listed on September 15th for $1,800,000, and closed for $1,750,000:
Here’s the zestimate of Oakridge, dated April 21st. It closed for $1,265,000 on November 18th. There is a big gap in the timeline, which means I may have gotten close to peak pricing in October:
This Carmel Valley zestimate was dated September 12th. It closed for $1,660,000 on December 2nd:
The Carmel Valley example is probably the most interesting because it’s a master-planned community of similar tract houses – their algorithm should be most accurate here. But they still modify their zestimate once a home hits the open market. They must expect homes to sell under the list price now:
At the bottom it says, ‘estimated value of this home based on local comparable homes’. Instead, they should just use their ‘Estimated sales range of $1.48M – $1.63M’, and add this, “depending who your realtor is”.
by Jim the Realtor | Nov 16, 2022 | 2023, Spring Kick, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow |
There are three types of sellers:
Sure I’m motivated….if I get my price.- I’ll sell for what the market will bear.
- Desperate.
Unless the home is a real trophy property, this isn’t the market that tolerates aspirational sellers. For those who will only sell if they get their price – you should wait this out….and it could take a while.
The high-priced listings might get showings, but mostly to buyers who are considering the better-priced home down the street. It will take another six months and some boost from a strong spring selling season before the listings priced at retail-plus will start selling again. And that’s probably optimistic.
I still think the 2023 Spring Selling Season will be boisterous, and the sales volume will pick up – but generally-speaking, I agree with Zillow that pricing won’t be rising. Here are Z’s latest predictions:
SE Carlsbad 92009
Del Mar – 92014
La Jolla – 92037
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067
Carmel Valley 92130
Less than 1% annual increases in prime neighborhoods? Yikes!
There is nothing wrong with being in Plateau City. Sellers just need to recalibrate and be smart about what it takes to sell a home in this environment:
- Hire a great agent.
- Spruce up the home.
- Utilize effective staging.
- Price attractively (be the best-priced active listing).
- Make it easy to show.
That’s all – and if you don’t do all five, it’s ok because there’s nothing that price won’t fix!
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An example of #1 is the now-famous property for sale in Del Mar on Border. A buyer thought they could get approvals to build a high-end resort there, but it was put to a vote, and the citizens turned it down. A new buyer is now hoping to turn it into apartments.
It’s been for sale since 2007, or 5,573 days!
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/929-border-avenue-solana-beach-ca-92075/25353758691121345
P.S. If there is anyone who wonders why their Over-$4,000,000 stats don’t match up with mine, it’s because I take this listing out every week so it doesn’t skew the averages.
