by Jim the Realtor | Nov 4, 2022 | Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow |
Our one-story listing in Aviara closed escrow today.
We had listed for an attractive $1,800,000 in mid-September, and had about 2,600 views on Zillow in the first five days (see above). We received three offers, and accepted the highest at $2,100,000 cash.
Previously I told the story of how the home inspector’s lack of bedside manner put the buyer on edge. Their mold inspection didn’t detect anything in the air, but a swab behind a toilet did cause a positive result. We offered mold remediation and re-test to ensure the problem was corrected – the standard solution – but the buyer said she couldn’t handle the stress and cancelled escrow instead.
You never get the same buyer enthusiasm the second time around, so I knew going back on the open market in mid-October was going to be a challenge – especially now that my seller was getting used to the idea of a $2,100,000 sales price.
We completed the mold remediation so at least the problem was solved. But I didn’t make any mention of it in the MLS or in other advertising because I wanted to control the message. We went back on the market on Friday, October 14th, and I did the open house extravaganza on the 15th and 16th where I planned to discuss the mold remediation in person with the interested parties.
We only had about 1,580 views in the first five days – which is 40% lower than the original effort:
I had already contacted the previous bidders from the first round, and the second-place finisher who had offered $2,000,000 cash was still interested. They weren’t willing to put another offer on the table until after the open houses were done, and when they did, it was a disappointing $1,650,000.
No one else made an offer.
We went back and forth, but the best they were willing to do was $1,750,000.
By then, it was Tuesday night and the first game of the Padres vs. Phillies playoffs. Without any hope of another offer to rival the deal on the table, the next day the seller decided to take it, and stay on track to purchase the replacement home that we had in escrow, contingent upon this one selling.
Did the value drop $350,000 in a month?
You could say that, but it the double whammy of falling out of escrow/mold remediation didn’t help. The original $2,100,000 offer was too optimistic to stick, and given that the eventual buyer had dropped from $2.0 to $1.75, their original offer probably wouldn’t have closed either.
An offer of $1,800,000 would have made it to the finish line, and maybe as high as $1,900,000. Having the general negativity increasing about real estate market every day was bad enough, and then include the wicked combo of second try/mold/Padres playoff fever. I’m glad we got as much as we did.
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 27, 2022 | Frenzy, Market Buzz, Zillow |
The biggest fear for the North San Diego County coastal region is a meltdown in Bay Area prices.
It’s been estimated that 50% or more of the buyers who were bidding up homes here during the frenzy are from the Bay Area, and Silicon Valley in particular. If prices were to drop 23% to 30% there, it would impact how much they would be willing to spend on replacement homes here.
This is only one example but we can say that this sold at the peak of the market, or close.
This was my uncle’s girlfriend’s house, and when I was there in November to pay my last respects, I told them that my guess at the current value was high-$2,000,000s.
They hired a good agent who spruced it up and staged it, and they listed for $3,195,000 on March 2nd.
A month later, it closed for $3,710,000 for 1,763sf.
How does it look today?
Today’s zestimate is within 1% of the sales price in April, which had been bid up $515,000 over the list price at the time. What are the comps that Zillow says they used to determine the value?
Four recent closings:
It is only one example, and certainly, not everyone from Los Altos is moving here. But just looking at those four recent sales, it seems like that area is holding up pretty good.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1200-Brucito-Ave-Los-Altos-CA-94024/19620416_zpid/
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 22, 2022 | Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow |
Just a quick reminder of the constant grift in real estate.
Before the listing was entered onto the MLS:
After the MLS listing was inputted – at least they didn’t recreate the history graph…..yet:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Before the listing hit the MLS:
After MLS input:
Why does it matter? Because too many people – both buyers and sellers – are relying too much on these to be their accurate value estimators. People are moving too fast, they don’t want to spend much if any time investigating, and it’s too hard to get good help. Everyone just wants to grab and go!
The second set says they are based on recent home sales? How can it fluctuate 20% in one day? These revised real estate values aren’t a result of an algorithm; they are purely derived from the list price.
You are being manipulated by the Corporate Warlords – watch yourself!
by Jim the Realtor | Sep 6, 2022 | Forecasts, Zillow |
Zillow has recalibrated and is predicting a fairly flat 12 months ahead.
Here are the zip codes I’ve received so far, all ranging between +1.5% and 1.9% appreciation over the next 12 months – the rest of the local zip codes should be similar:
NW Carlsbad
SE Carlsbad
NE Carlsbad
SW Carlsbad
Carmel Valley
Del Mar
La Jolla
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 19, 2022 | 2023, Why You Should List With Jim, Zillow |
After my blog post yesterday publicizing the confidence Zillow has in our local markets, guess what arrived today. Yep, their first installment of their next round (it usually takes 2-3 weeks to receive the full set):
At the end of July, their prediction for Carmel Valley was for a 12.9% increase in values over the next year. Today, their forecast is for +1.7% appreciation over the next year for one of the strongest markets in the county. It means that many other areas are going to have a negative number.
On July 11th, Rob Dawg said:
Don’t panic.
If you do panic, panic first.
I can get your home on the market today!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 18, 2022 | Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Zillow |
The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year – these estimates are the same or higher than last month! I can see a path to how this could happen.
The Spring Selling Season gets frenzied up for 3-4 months where buyers and sellers all jump in at the same time, and then the market goes flat for the rest of the year…..kinda like this year!
NW Carlsbad, 92008:
SE Carlsbad, 92009:
NE Carlsbad, 92010:
SW Carlsbad, 92011:
Carmel Valley, 92130:
Del Mar, 92014:
Encinitas, 92024:
La Jolla:
Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:
They do have website-viewer data that nobody else has, and hopefully they are using it to track the activity and make predictions.
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 4, 2022 | Realtor, Realtor Training, Zillow |
Whoever advertises the most, wins the game. I know agents who spend $25,000 to $50,000 per month!
Aug. 4, 2022- Zillow, Inc. and Opendoor Technologies Inc. have announced a multi-year partnership that combines two category leaders to transform how people start their move. The partnership will allow home sellers on the Zillow platform to seamlessly request an Opendoor offer to sell their home.
Selling a home can be full of uncertainty for many consumers who would rather focus on their next chapter than on the stresses of moving. Potential sellers on Zillow apps and sites may request and view an offer directly from Opendoor and easily compare it to an open-market sale using a real estate agent. Opendoor offers will be available on Zillow, and customers will be able to use the service as a standalone offering or package it with other Zillow home shopping services such as financing, closing and agent selection. Additionally, Zillow customers will be able to work with a licensed Zillow advisor who will serve as a helpful guide in understanding these options.
“Zillow is the most visited brand in online real estate. As we bring the housing super app to life, we’re empowering our millions of visitors to understand all their options and transact in the way that best meets their housing needs,” said Zillow Chief Operating Officer, Jeremy Wacksman. “We know choice is important for customers and they can make the best decision when they see all of their selling options up front — including selling on the open market with a Zillow Premier Agent partner and getting a cash offer from Opendoor. This exclusive partnership will pair Zillow’s audience and brand power with Opendoor’s selling solution in one easy place, so customers can evaluate their selling options and easily package it with other Zillow services to buy and finance their next home.”
“At Opendoor, we’re working to turn what is often viewed as one of life’s most stressful moments — the home move — into an e-commerce experience that’s simple, certain and fast. By bringing together Zillow’s market-leading audience and Opendoor’s e-commerce platform, more consumers will have the option to sell to Opendoor and save themselves the stress and uncertainty of a traditional sale process,” said Opendoor President Andrew Low Ah Kee. “For parents looking to upsize, a young professional moving for a new job, and millions of others who regularly use Zillow to explore their home selling options, we will provide them with the ability to move with a tap of a button.”
Zillow and Opendoor are working together to launch this new product experience with the goal of serving shared customers nationwide in the coming months and years.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/zillow-opendoor-announce-multi-year-partnership-301600329.html
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 15, 2022 | Forecasts, Zillow |
The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year. In May, they were guessing +19% or more in all areas, so this looks like a soft landing:
NW Carlsbad, 92008:
SE Carlsbad, 92009:
NE Carlsbad, 92010:
SW Carlsbad, 92011:
Carmel Valley, 92130:
Del Mar, 92014:
Encinitas, 92024:
La Jolla:
Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:
They do have website-viewer data that nobody else has, and hopefully they are using it to track the activity and make predictions.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 3, 2022 | Zillow |
Let’s revisit Encinitas Ranch for an example of how the zestimates will affect the post-frenzy era. Consider the ER comps since my $3,760,000 sale closed in November.
This is where the algorithms should perform beautifully because there have been eight sales of similar tract houses built at the same time on similar sized lots and views. All eight of these sales closed at prices at least $200,000 below my sale.
If zestimates are accurate, ours should have dropped to at least $3,500,000, and there is a model-match sale at $3,050,000 in March – the height of the frenzy.
What does Zillow think?
What they are doing to the marketplace should be criminal, because buyers and sellers both want a quick value check to verify their hopes and dreams – yet even in the very typical tract neighborhoods, the zestimates tend to be way off.
What’s worse is once a home goes on the open market, they reset their zestimate to be close to the list price so no one can tell how wrong they are.
Is it feasible that the traditional way we’ve determined home values gets phased out, and we just let our masters shove garbage down our throats? Absolutely, and because the real estate cycles have been eliminated, we won’t know the difference.
by Jim the Realtor | May 18, 2022 | Interesting Houses, Zillow
You think it’s bad here? Hat tip to ML for sending this in!
